JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 2:46 AM EST071
FXUS63 KJKL 100746 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
246 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather pattern will continue, with multiple weather
systems over the next week.
- The threat of heavy rainfall will return periodically, with the
greatest threats being Tuesday into Tuesday night, late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, and next weekend.
- The greatest potential for accumulating snow is from around dawn
Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly for areas north of a line
from Mt. Vernon to Pikeville.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
The 00Z model data started to trickle in and confirmed some of
the trends we noticed in the 18Z runs with respect to pcpn Monday
night through Tuesday. With that new guidance - particularly the
00Z NAM - have gone ahead and issued a Flood and Winter Storm
Watch across out area - in close coordination with WFO LMK. Have
also updated the snow total grids for this upcoming event to
account for the models' trending upward. Did also include the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These upgrades and
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure squeezing by to the southeast
of the area as high pressure is briefly building into the region
from the northwest. This process will eventually clear the lower
clouds over the area, but in the meantime, they are plentiful
with even some sprinkles or flurries falling in the far southeast.
Look for the light pcpn to clear out during the mid to late
evening hours with dry conditions to follow through the rest of
the night. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s across eastern
Kentucky area while dewpoints vary from the mid 20s northwest to
the mid 30s in the southeast, all amid light winds. With the
imminent arrival of some of the 00Z model data concerning Monday
night's snow chances and heavy rain potential we will be poring
though it for possible headlines in time for the evening news. For
the near term forecast update have mainly just added in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 552 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2025
A weak wave riding eastward along the north side of a surface frontal
boundary stalled well to our south may bring precipitation close
to our southern counties this evening. Late this afternoon, radar
is showing showers from our southern counties southward through
TN. However, this has been mainly virga in KY due to a very dry
layer around 850 mb. Although sprinkles or flurries may occur in
our far southern counties, outside of very isolated occurrences
it's likely that precip will remain below a hundredth of an inch.
As this wave moves on to the east tonight, any precip will end and
the mid level clouds associated with it will also depart. At that
point, our sky condition would be determined by the amount of
high clouds and lingering stratocu. High clouds would probably be
rather thin, but the confidence in coverage of low clouds is more
uncertain. The forecast will call for clouds breaking to the
greatest extent in our north and west, but confidence in the
degree of cloud cover left by morning is low. Whatever is left of
low clouds should finally dissolve on Monday, and sunshine
filtered through high clouds can then be expected.
The next system which will ride along the front to our south will
begin to take shape on Monday night. A longwave upper trough will
deepen over the western CONUS and warm/moist advection will begin
on the downstream side of the trough. The associated moisture
quickly gets carried east northeast atop the cold air on the north
side of the frontal boundary over the Deep South. Precip should
begin developing over our area from south to north before dawn on
Tuesday. Based on temperature profiles, the onset should be rain
in the far southern part of the forecast area and snow in the far
north. The big problem is in between. Models don't agree on
temperatures, and a model blend has been used as the best
estimate, but it is fairly low confidence.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday morning through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025
The next in a series of disturbances within the active pattern
approaches the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, and departs the
area Thursday morning. All three models take the surface low
northeast across central Kentucky into southwestern Ohio late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with strengthening warm advection
out ahead of this system resulting in no p-type concerns as
precipitation will fall in liquid form. The model consensus
continues to suggest 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain with this system, but
considering there will likely be snowmelt, it seems reasonable if
not likely that there could be an increased areal coverage of
hydrological impacts. Flood headlines may be needed across the
north in addition to the south, if current forecast trends
continue.
A brief clearing trend and precipitation lull is expected late
Thursday, with a chilly Friday morning expected before temperatures
begin to rebound quickly ahead of the next system to arrive for the
weekend.
The third system will serve as the culmination of all of the above,
with widespread soaking rain spreading from west to east Saturday
morning. Rain will persist in the warm sector of the most vigorous
of these three systems through Sunday, and it will likely end in the
passage of a cold front. While a changeover to snow on the backside
of this system cannot be ruled out, hydrological impacts look more
likely than widespread winter weather impacts with this set up. Yet
another QPF bullseye over the Cumberland basin would exacerbate any
ongoing flooding there, but the strength of this last system
relative to the others means it is more likely to produce heavy rain
and its related flooding across the entire area. Unlike the previous
forecast package, this morning's package has a more uniform QPF
distribution across the forecast area, with a general 2.25- to 3.00-
inch falling across the forecast area. This places 7 day liquid-
equivalent precipitation totals within the following ranges: 2-4"
north of I-64; 3-5" north of the Mountain Parkway; and 5-8" across
Southeastern Kentucky. Locally higher amounts are possible, and
this preliminary forecast is subject to change as the exact
details surrounding all three systems evolve. Nevertheless,
conditions will become increasingly favorable for potentially
impactful flooding with the passage of each system. Readers are
encouraged to have multiple ways to receive watch and warning
products and then follow all precautionary actions detailed in the
call to action text of those products. We will continue to update
this forecast with the latest data as the each storm approaches,
so stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025
While widespread clouds continue to steam over the area, CIGS are
VFR and will largely stay VFR through the TAF window. Currently,
KLOZ is the only TAF that's experiencing MVFR CIGS but over the
next hour or so, those CIGS will improve to VFR. However, terminals
are forecast to fall back into MVFR later tonight as a weak wave
brings lowered CIGS but after 18Z, terminals will improve to VFR
and remain VFR through the rest of the period. Lastly, winds will
be light and variable.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-111-119.
Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-110-112>118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC/MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 10, 2:46 AM EST---------------
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