LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 3:06 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...122
FXUS64 KLIX 010906
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
306 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Northern portion of yesterday's upper trough was along the
Atlantic Coast this morning, while the southern portion was
cutting off a low over northern Mexico. The next northern stream
shortwave trough was moving through the Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure extended from the western Great Lakes to Texas. At
the surface, broken high cirrus was noted over the southeastern
half of the area. At 3 AM CST, temperatures generally ranged from
the mid 40s to mid 50s, but were as low as 42 at Trent Lott
Airport near Pascagoula.
The upper low over Mexico won't make a lot of eastward progress
over the next 36 hours, and will be south of Brownsville Sunday
evening, with upper ridging over the Florida Straits. This will
produce mainly zonal flow along the Gulf Coast. With the surface
high off to our east, low level flow will gradually turn onshore
by Sunday afternoon. Dew points won't really have recovered at
that point, remaining in the 40s and lower 50s. High temperatures
today will generally be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, as the
cold air advection process is just about completed. Overnight lows
tonight should generally be in the 40s, although one or two
readings just below 40 could happen in the normally cooler
drainage areas of the Pascagoula River and Pearl River basins.
Highs on Sunday will be a bit warmer, with areas away from the
immediate coast getting into the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
The upper pattern will be a bit stagnant for a couple days
locally, with upper ridging remaining centered over Cuba and the
Florida Straits, and the upper low remaining near Brownsville
until perhaps Wednesday. It then opens up and weakens as it moves
across the northern Gulf through Thursday evening. With low level
flow being onshore, moisture levels will gradually increase with
dew points rising into the 60s across most of the area Monday.
Those moisture levels will continue for most of the workweek with
dew points in the lower and middle 60s for much of that time.
Any cold fronts assisted by northern stream shortwaves will remain
north of the area during the work week, but perhaps getting as far
south as Interstate 20 by Friday. Moisture and instability levels
may be sufficient enough for some isolated showers or storms on
Wednesday, but widespread precipitation is not expected through
the end of the work week. While Monday morning temperatures will
be cool compared to the rest of the week...upper 40s to mid 50s,
that's still 5-10F above normal. For the remainder of the week,
temperatures will average 10-15F above normal...at least. This
will put high temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 in most
areas, with lower 80s not out of the question. If there are going
to be record high temperatures set, it'll probably be on Thursday.
With warm onshore winds blowing over cooler waters, the threat of
advective sea fog will increase, perhaps as early as Monday night,
although the limiting factor may actually be the wind fields being
too light. We will continue to monitor the threat, but for now,
not carrying a mention in the grids.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
VFR conditions are forecasted for the entire forecast period.
Winds will be light and variable. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Will keep the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines in place for
the open waters through mid-morning. Once the cold advection cuts
off later today, winds will relax with wind related headlines not
anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period. Sea fog
could become an issue over the protected waters as we get toward
midweek, but not in the short term.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 72 46 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 70 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 68 48 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 67 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 71 41 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 1, 3:06 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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