IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 2:51 PM EST237
FXUS63 KIND 061951
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
251 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Decreasing clouds overnight.
- Rain returns Saturday, brief freezing rain/snow possible
- Additional chances for wintry precipitation next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Low stratus persists across much of central Indiana as of 2pm, with
an area of clearing across our southeastern counties. Further west
into Illinois, the back edge of the stratus is advancing westward.
Guidance has this reaching our CWA by around 00z, with gradual
clearing thereafter. Overnight should feature partly to mostly
cloudy skies as intervals of mid to high-level clouds pass through.
We added a slight chance of sprinkles late this afternoon into the
early evening across our far southwest, as some thundershowers have
developed over southern Illinois. Guidance shows these generally
moving eastward but there has been a slight northward trend in some
CAMs, likely from interaction with a vort max over the Great Lakes.
The bulk of this activity will stay to our south.
The aforementioned vort max should tighten the MSLP gradient enough
for an uptick in winds around 05z. Winds should increase to 10 to 15
knots from Bloomington northward, with gusts up to 20 knots possible
at times. Gusts may be overdone by high-res guidance which tends to
mix down higher momentum despite the presence of a strong inversion.
Nevertheless, a period of windier conditions is expected for a few
hours overnight. Winds should then rapidly die down around or
shortly after sunrise as surface high pressure moves in.
A renewed shot of cold air advection will accompany the winds, with
temperatures falling into the 20s by morning. However, the fresh
continental polar air does not make it that far south...and our
highs tomorrow are not expected to deviate far from climatological
norms (upper 30s to low 40s). Clouds begin to increase again as high
pressure exits eastward and a mid-level system approaches from the
west. See the Long Term section for details on this.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Friday Night Through Sunday.
The pattern will begin to shift again going into Friday night as
surface winds will gradually become easterly again ahead of the next
impactful weather system that is expected to impact central Indiana
towards daybreak Saturday. A surface low is expected to move into
the Plains Saturday morning before undergoing cyclogenesis as it
tracks eastward with fairly good model agreement in a track that
roughly follows the Ohio River.
The 850mb low will be displaced a bit further north which will lead
to the bulk of the LLJ moisture advection to occur across the
southern half of the state and allow for periods of moderate rain
with the potential for around a half inch of QPF. Temperatures
towards the northern third of the state will be just cold enough
initially for brief freezing rain or snow, but the general trend has
been for faster WAA which keeps the better chance for freezing rain
to remain north of the forecast area. There has been a slight shift
in timing the the expected low passage about 6 hours earlier
compared to the forecast a day ago which will bring cooler air in
earlier into the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday, but
precipitation will end before sub-freezing temperatures return.
Monday Through Thursday.
Precipitation chances look minimal Sunday into Monday with near
normal temperatures as rain remains along and south of the Ohio
River. A more substantial upper level system looks to impact the
Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday with models beginning to show
better agreement in the overall synoptic pattern with a surface low
moving across the Tennessee Valley while central Indiana remains in
the cold sector of the system with strong northeasterly surface
flow. The main question will be how far north the forcing will be
with increasing confidence in an accumulating snow event across at
least southern Indiana with the potential for freezing rain either
along or near the Ohio River. The pattern remains active Wednesday
into Thursday with another system moving through with models in general
agreement that central Indiana will remain along the cold side of
the system with another shot for snow and/or freezing rain.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings persisting to about 00z.
- Wind shift, becoming northerly by Friday morning.
Discussion:
MVFR ceilings are holding steady across central Indiana today.
Little in the way of improvement is expected until about 21z, with
most locations returning to VFR by 00z.
Westerly winds should gradually gain a more northerly component
through the TAF period, becoming northerly by 12z Friday. Some gusts
early in the TAF period to 25 knots are possible. Speeds decrease
this evening before picking up again around 05z as a mid-level
system passes to the north.
Mid to high-level clouds may pass through at times tonight through
Friday. Some low-level clouds may reappear towards the very end of
the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 2:51 PM EST---------------
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