IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 9:02 AM EST501
FXUS63 KIND 061402
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
902 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain ending early this morning.
- Mostly cloudy this morning; Decreasing Cloudiness this afternoon.
- Mostly clear tonight, colder.
- Next round of rain with a brief mix of snow/freezing rain Saturday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Fog has largely cleared up across central Indiana and so the dense
fog advisory has been canceled. Additionally, fog has been removed
from the forecast with this update. We maintained overcast skies
through the morning and into the afternoon, which is above guidance
but better matches current satellite trends. Otherwise, the
remaining forecast variables are on track and no changes are needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Friday)...
Issued at 902 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this morning shows a frontal boundary across
central Indiana, ahead of weak, poorly organized, low pressure in
place over the plains. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a weak
short wave over IL and IN, with mainly zonal flow in its wake. Radar
shows the bulk of the precipitation associated with that wave has
moved east of Indiana. This is where the best forcing is at this
time. A few scattered light showers remained across Indiana and
southern IL. Temperatures across Central Indiana remained in the
middle to lower 30s, but with a continued slow rise. Low clouds
across the area were also allowing for fog an drizzle.
Today -
Main challenge today will be morning fog. Models continue to suggest
the quick eastward exit of the shortwave and all of its associated
forcing and precipitation. The lingering frontal across the area
will shift northward early this morning, and continue to allow
temperatures to slowly rise above freezing. This will any lingering
drizzle or fog remain liquid and limit any impacts. However through
daybreak, lower levels are suggested to remain near saturation
resulting in fog, low clouds and drizzle. Many locations will have
visibilities less than 1mile. Should dense fog become widespread, an
advisory may be needed.
High pressure over the northern plains is expected to build across
Indiana through the day. The mixing associated with this will allow
clouds to gradually dissipate this afternoon as the frontal boundary
slips southward. Zonal flow will be in place aloft, limiting
advection with no forcing in play. Forecast soundings keep lower
level moisture present through mid afternoon and show drying and
subsidence in the lower levels toward 00Z. Thus we will expect some
afternoon clearing to arrive from NW to SE across the forecast area
as the high pressure system builds.
Cold air advection really does not start until later this afternoon
as the front pushes south and northwesterly flow begins. This will
still result in some warming today, allowing temperatures to reach
the lower to middle 40s.
Tonight -
Quiet weather is expected to arrive tonight as high pressure over
the northern plains states begins to build southward across Indiana.
Forecast soundings trend toward a dry column as cold air advection
continues. Aloft a nearly zonal flow to slight ridging pattern is
expected to develop over Indiana again tonight, another sign of
subsidence. Thus a mostly clear and colder night is in store. Look
for lows in the middle to upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 326 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
A dry and quiet start to the long term period as high pressure
extends into central Indiana. A quick passing surface low pressure
system will then bring mostly rain to the area on Saturday. Moisture
out of the Gulf will lift over this system with WAA also moving in.
The freezing line will be hovering near the forecast area, so as
precipitation moves in early Saturday, some freezing rain and snow
is expected to mix in at times before fully warming up to above
freezing through the day. As the low exits Saturday night and cooler
temperatures settle back in behind the associated cold front, could
see additional freezing rain and snow mix in briefly before the
precip ends. Should see less than half an inch of QPF with this
event.
Colder air will quickly move in afterwards, leaving the remainder of
the forecast period with near to then below normal temperatures. A
couple more systems could bring chances for snow or a rain/snow mix
near midweek but uncertainty remains as to how much those system
will impact our forecast area so will continue to monitor. At this
time, models do suggest that parts of central Indiana should at
least see some snow from one or both of the systems.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 527 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
Impacts:
- Poor flying conditions through Thursday afternoon.
- IFR Ceilings common through 19Z-20Z.
- Improvement to VFR by late afternoon.
Discussion:
Abundant lower level moisture across the area will remain as a
frontal boundary across Central Indiana lingers in the area and acts
as a focus for continued fog and low clouds. IFR and worse
conditions are found near the front and this feature is expected to
persist through at least mid morning. Forecast soundings and time
heights continue to reveal lower level moisture in place through the
morning.
Improvement from the fog and low ceilings will occur late this
morning as high pressure builds across the area from the northwest.
Forecast soundings reveal a dry column with subsidence arriving
between 21Z-24Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 6, 9:02 AM EST---------------
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