MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 3:50 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...693
FXUS64 KMOB 312150
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
An upper trof over the eastern states weakens and exits off into the
western Atlantic through Saturday morning. Showers currently over
the easternmost portion of the area, associated with a pre-frontal
surface trof, exit to the east by late this afternoon. A weak cold
front follows quickly behind and moves through the area late this
afternoon into the early evening, with a ridge of dry surface high
pressure building into the area in the wake of the front. Dry
conditions are expected for tonight into Saturday night. Lows
tonight range from the lower 40s inland to the mid to upper 40s at
the coast, then Saturday night will be a bit cooler and range from
around 40 well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. Highs on Saturday
will be 65 to 70. A high risk of rip currents tonight will be
followed by a moderate risk Saturday and Saturday night. /29
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Zonal flow aloft will be in place through midweek as an upper
ridge builds in over the Gulf. Upper-level flow will shift to
southwesterly by Wednesday as a weak, southern stream shortwave
develops over the western Gulf. This shortwave looks to move
overhead Wednesday night as a more potent longwave digs across the
central US and moves towards the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, high pressure becomes situated over Florida and the
western Atlantic, providing the local region with onshore flow
through the entire period. A cold front does attempt to push
southward on Tuesday, but at this point, it will likely stall to
our north and lift away from the region by Wednesday. After a
mainly dry forecast due to the high in place, rain chances look to
return by late Thursday into Friday as another cold front
(associated with the digging longwave trough) approaches the area.
With onshore flow in place through the period, temperatures are
expected to remain well above seasonal norms. Highs each day will
likely be in the 70s each day. A few locations may even hit the 80
degree mark midweek. Lows will also rise throughout the period, with
40s expected Sunday night, increasing into the upper 50s to lower
60s by midweek. Lastly, with moisture levels increasing throughout
the period, patchy fog development looks to be possible each night.
/96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Light to moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally
strong northwesterly flow this evening as a cold front moves
through. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 pm this evening
until 3 am late tonight for the 20-60 nm portion due to winds
reaching around 20 knots, albeit somewhat briefly. The offshore flow
diminishes late tonight into Saturday morning and becomes light and
variable Saturday afternoon. A light southeasterly flow develops on
Sunday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 44 68 43 71 47 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 49 66 47 70 50 71 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 51 66 49 69 52 69 59 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 42 69 40 73 43 77 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 42 67 41 73 43 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 41 66 40 73 42 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 44 70 42 74 42 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 3:50 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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