JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 12:55 AM EST044
FXUS63 KJKL 070555 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1255 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures are forecast for most places on Saturday,
with cooler readings the remainder of the days during the next
week.
- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with a flood
risk, and the potential for wintry precipitation at times for
some locations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2025
The last of the rain from this system are moving out of the area
early this morning, though a few Flood Advisories and a Warning
remain as the streamflows continue to slowly fall. With some
clearing to the skies have maintained the idea of fog developing,
mainly in the valleys, through the area. Did updated the forecast,
primarily to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a forthcoming freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM EST THU FEB 6 2025
Rainfall is gradually tapering from northwest to southeast late
this evening after several hours of very stormy weather for
locations near and south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor.
Anticipate that rain will quickly end in the next few hours and
give way to clearing skies overnight. Given the recent rainfall
and relatively weak gradient, have added valley fog to the
overnight forecast. Any other adjustments to the forecast were of
little sensible impact.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 608 PM EST THU FEB 6 2025
Late this afternoon, a cold front extended from near Monticello to
Paintsville. This front separates record breaking warmth to the
south from a transition to much colder wintery air to the north.
The air south of the front is also unusually moist for wintertime
standards, resulting in instability supportive of thunderstorms.
development. Respectable shear, largely due to speed, is also
present and is supporting organization of longer lived cells.
This presents a severe wx threat into the evening. Interestingly,
both right (cyclonic) and left (anticyclonic) moving supercells
have been observed late this afternoon in far southeast KY.
More benign showers/thunderstorms are expected further north this
evening, with elevated activity north of the front.
Precip will taper off from northwest to southeast tonight behind
the cold frontal passage. High pressure slipping by to our north
in the air mass behind the front will provide a dry but much
cooler day on Friday. Even so, temperatures will still probably
end up a bit above normal.
A low pressure system traveling along the aforementioned boundary
will draw the front back northward toward KY on Friday night.
Isentropic lift across the boundary will likely bring rain to most
of the area overnight, but latest model runs suggest it won't be
particularly heavy on Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 512 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
The long term forecast is characterized by rather active weather in
Eastern Kentucky. As quasi-zonal flow sits in place aloft over the
Greater Ohio River Valley, a series of disturbances and their
surface reflections will approach the region. This will yield
multiple frontal passages, repeated rounds of precipitation,
temperature swings, and potentially some hydrological impacts. The
Weather Prediction Center has highlighted two distinct periods of
potentially heavy precipitation for the forecast area: 2/11-2/12 and
2/14-2/16. The cumulative nature of this past week's observed
rainfall and then whatever falls from the systems in the extended
forecast may lead to stream rises. While it is too early to provide
specific details, interests at risk for flooding are encouraged to
pay close attention to trusted weather sources as this active
pattern unfolds.
The period opens with a warm front lifting back north through the
Tennessee Valley. Increasing isentropic lift out ahead of this
boundary and modest moisture return/WAA in its wake will yield
returning precipitation chances and warming temperatures on
Saturday. Afternoon highs will be well above normal in the 60s,
but the NBM guidance suggests highs closer to 70 across the south.
Saturday's plentiful cloud coverage may limit the amount of
diurnal warming, but in our southernmost counties, any breaks in
the clouds could yield in near-record highs. In fact, the record
high at the London-Corbin climate site for February 8th is 70
degrees. This is within one standard deviation of the current
deterministic forecast high, so the NBM guidance may be realistic.
Further to the north and closer to the boundary, it may only be
able to warm up into the mid 50s. Regardless, the entire forecast
area will be in the warm sector of Saturday's system, and all
precipitation will accordingly fall as rain through Saturday
night. Meaningful cold air will lag behind the system's best
moisture, and Sunday's sensible weather generally looks drier and
cooler. Expect highs in the lower 40s, with overnight lows dipping
down into the 30s. However, given the zonal flow regime, this
boundary is poised to once again stall out somewhere to the South
of the area in the Tennessee Valley.
Headed into next week, this zonal flow eventually turns more
southwesterly, which will increase moisture transport into the
region. With the weekend's boundary to our south, the area will
initially be in the cold sector out ahead of the next system. This
may yield wintery precipitation types. To further complicate
things, the stalled boundary may once again work its way north
again as a warm front, albeit in a more muted fashion.
Temperatures through the rest of the long term are shrouded in the
typical long-range uncertainty, and the exact thermal profiles
will depend on precisely how these boundaries evolve. With the
warm air leading aloft, this could lead to a gradient of
precipitation types from north to south with Monday-Tuesday's
system. Across the north, where the coldest air will be in place,
snow is currently forecast. Closer to Tennessee, along the
Cumberland Basin, heavy rain is forecast. In between the two, a
wintery mix is plausible. Similar set-ups exist on Wednesday into
Thursday and then again next weekend; these would further agitate
any potential hydrological impacts. It is possible that northern
portions of the forecast area see accumulating snow next week
while their southern counterparts see multiple inches of rain.
This particular package's storm total QPF from Monday to Thursday
correspondingly ranges from about 1.5 inches in the Bluegrass to 3
inches in the Cumberland.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2025
Aviation conditions have returned to VFR across the terminals,
just recently, and this more benign weather with no restrictions
should hold through the period. Winds will be light and generally
from the north through the rest of the night and into the day,
Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 7, 12:55 AM EST---------------
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