IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 6:34 PM EST255
FXUS63 KIND 032334
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder tonight and Tuesday as a cold front moves through
central Indiana from the northwest.
- Rain will move in on Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible
overnight. Rain tapers off Thursday.
- More rain likely Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
A cold front from around Chicago to 75 miles northwest of St. Louis
is expected to drop southeast across central Indiana this evening
aid by fast northwest flow aloft. Then, broad surface high pressure
will build in from the northwest on Tuesday. Scarce moisture
suggests the cold front will move through dry tonight with just some
stratocu moving in per Hi-Res soundings and layered RH progs. The
gusty southwest winds and breaks in the clouds have allowed
temperatures to jump to near record highs this afternoon, in the
upper 50s north to upper 60s south. Had to bump up temperatures a
few degrees the rest of the day. Bedford, especially could even see
70 degrees.
Winds will switch to the northwest behind the cold front tonight.
This will usher in much colder air but the mostly cloudy skies
should at least keep temperatures no colder than the 30s through the
night. With high pressure building in and Hi-Res soundings showing a
dry column, should see plenty of sunshine. However, northeast winds
around the high will limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 30s
north to upper 40s south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...
Rain chances return early in the extended as a system approaches the
region. Forecast soundings suggest dry conditions are likely to
begin the period with a noticeable dry slot in the mid-levels.
However, increasing warm air advection ahead of the advancing
disturbance should gradually saturate the atmospheric column leading
to better rain chances on Wednesday. Most guidance still shows the
dry air lingering aloft into Wednesday morning with a shallow
saturated layer in the low-levels. This should keep any
precipitation that develops light initially until deeper moisture
arrives during the afternoon and overnight hours.
Anomalous moisture streaming northward combined with dynamics from
the aforementioned system will support QPF amounts around 0.5 to 1
inch across central Indiana. A lot of this rain is expected to fall
from late Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours when the
strongest forcing and deeper moisture align. A few thunderstorms are
also possible Wednesday night as low-level theta-e advection
promotes modest instability.
There is still a chance for some light freezing rain or freezing
drizzle to mix in, mainly early in the day. There are a few caveats
though that limit the threat for ice accretion on roads. The first
being that temperatures are going to be above normal leading up to
Wednesday resulting in warm ground temperatures. The other caveat is
that any precipitation early in the day should be light due to the
previously mentioned reasons above.
Once the heavier precipitation moves in late in the afternoon,
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30s with all rain. There
are still a few models trying to keep temperatures cooler and
suggesting some freezing rain potential across N/NE counties towards
the evening hours. This scenario is an outlier as increasing warm
air advection is likely going to warm temperatures, but we will
continue to monitor the setup closely. At this time, the threat for
freezing rain or impacts to travel is low.
Thursday onward...
Precipitation will begin to taper off Thursday morning from west to
east once surface high pressure builds into the region behind the
departing low pressure system. Dry conditions are then expected to
continue through Friday before another system promotes widespread
precipitation. Temperatures should remain warm enough to support
predominantly rain across central Indiana. The only exception is for
northern portions of the area which could see wintry precipitation
mix in as temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Confidence in this threat
is low due to diverging model solutions. Look for the disturbance to
shift east by Sunday with cooler air returning temperatures to near
seasonal.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 633 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings expected between 02Z and 12Z
Discussion:
A cold front is quickly nearing central Indiana from the N/NW. Prior
to arrival VFR conditions with 6-8kt winds from 250-270 are
expected. After passage, MVFR cloud cover with a quick wind shift
towards 310-340 is expected. General timing of cold front passage is
expected to be between 01Z and 04Z for all TAF sites. Pockets of IFR
are possible early tomorrow morning, but low MVFR should be the
predominant ceiling.
Tomorrow morning, dry air will help mix out any remaining MVFR
clouds with VFR condition and a light northerly wind expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 6:34 PM EST---------------
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