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333 FXUS64 KLIX 272131AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA331 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025Overcast skies have been the rule across the northern half of theCWFA this afternoon. We did start the morning with some showeractivity where BTR got over half of an inch before the raindissipated and moved out of the region as a surface front continued to move downstream. Aloft, mostly a zonal flow has set up, so despite the weak frontal passage, not much of a temperature change on the backside...although it is slightly drier. That said, albeit dry some low level stratus build-down oreven lake fog has developed this afternoon. Models have been struggling with the VIS aspect...so went with a marine dense fog. That said, visible satellite has really started to clear out locations across the southshore this afternoon outside of NEW, which remains in the "soup" if you will. Confidence is there that low stratus will remain across the regiontonight given some weak isentropic upglide north of the surfacefront. How much of this builds to the surface is a biggerquestion. At this juncture, went with patchy fog across most ofthe region to account for at least some fuzzy visibilities.However, low level dry air advection will be a limiting factor.Also, the set up isn't quite favorable for marine fog but as wehave seen over the lake today, it not exactly limiting it either.A weak upper level ridge will begin to develop over the northwestGulf by Tuesday. With the weak ridge and zonal flow, expect temperatures to remain at or even slightly above average, especially given the lack of a a Canadian influence (a far and wide difference from just a week ago). (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday night)Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025By midweek, overall the mostly zonal flow should continue. Surfacehigh pressure will finally start exiting stage east, which shouldallow a return flow to develop. Indeed, as rich low level moisture moves over the very cool local Gulf, Lake, and River waters, we'll need to continue to watch fog potential well into the long term period. Over the four corners region, a strong cutoff low develops and spins a few impulses around, which could spark some shower activity along the Red River where a surface front should start to develop. Along the front Globals show a weaksurface low developing over the TX Hill Country before moving north and east within the southwesterly upper flow. The upper low also finally begins to move downstream over the high plains of CO/KS late Wednesday and especially during the day on Thursday.As this upper low and surface low downstream move north andeastward, a surface front will approach our region from the westlate Thursday and into Friday. Taking a look at some severeparameters considering the influx of pretty decent low levelmoisture...well I guess not decent enough because instabilitywithin the globals is a bit lacking. Furthermore, to limit theconcern the best jet dynamics look to be displaced temporally with a strong 140kt H3 jet pushing into the region Thursday nightor roughly 12 hours prior to frontal passage. There is still sometime to watch these features to see if they better align, but given the limitations of timing of the front and also lack of diurnal influence, think any severe threat will be limited for now. Although, the H85 45kt jet looks quite impressive...if timingdoes better align there could be a conditional low cape/high shear threat there.The front will be rather transient in nature and with again littleif any Canadian/Arctic influence, temperatures do not look to cavetoo much on the backside of the front next weekend. In fact, highslate next weekend and into early next week look to be largelyaround 70F. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025Little if any improvement is anticipated through this evening andovernight tonight. There may be some brief VFR conditionsrespectively later this afternoon and around sunset. However,overnight tonight and especially toward sunrise, VIS/CIGreductions again will be the rule. By mid to late morning VIS/CIGreductions will improve with VFR conditions expected by the end ofthe cycle. Winds will remain generally light and northerly. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025Light offshore flow is expected over the next couple of days as high pressure spreads into the region from the northwest. This high pressure will eventually shift eastward by late Wednesday andinto Thursday. This will allow for low level winds to build out of the south (onshore) again late in the week ahead of our next frontal boundary due into the region during the day on Friday. Cautionary headlines may be needed and cannot rule out the need for advisories beyond 20 NM. Otherwise, the only other main concern could be fog development as rich low level moisture moves over a very cold water surface. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 42 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 47 67 52 72 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 45 65 50 70 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 49 63 52 69 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 44 62 48 66 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 44 67 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-534.MS...None.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ534.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
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Topic: [Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 3:31 PM CST ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (Read 524 times)
