JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 7:26 PM EST510
FXUS63 KJKL 040026
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
726 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Normal to well above normal temperatures will prevail for the
next week.
- Showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday
through Thursday evening, and again this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
The forecast is on track, with no significant changes to note with
the early evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
Late this afternoon, a broad trough extended from eastern Canada
south across the Great Lakes to the OH valley, mid Atlantic, and
southeast. A shortwave trough was moving through the broad trough
and extended from northwestern Ontario to Manitoba to the
Dakotas. Shortwave ridging extended from the Southern Plains to
portions of the Rockies. Meanwhile an upper level low was
meandering along the BC Coast with an associated trough south and
southwest across the eastern Pacific that was approaching the west
coast of the Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure was
tracking across Quebec with a cold front/wavy frontal zone
extending to the eastern Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to near the
KS and OK border and then west northwest to eastern Co to the
Pacific northwest. A ridge of high pressure extended from off the
southeast coast into the Gulf. Another ridge extended into the
northern and central Plains behind the frontal zone. Locally in
the warm sector, temperatures have reached record highs at JKL and
LOZ with highs across the region in the upper 60s to
Tonight and Tuesday, the shortwave trough near the US/Canadian border
should rotate across Ontario and the Great Lakes and into Quebec
and then across the Northeast and mid Atlantic to the Maritimes
and off the Northeast US coast. The surface low should precede
this shortwave across Quebec and into the Maritimes and then into
the Atlantic. The trailing cold front will approach the OH Valley
this evening and then sag into the area overnight dropping to the
southeast portion of the area around dawn on Tuesday. This front
should continue sagging southeast on Tuesday stalling from the
Carolinas across the Gulf coast states to the TX panhandle and
then north near the front range of the Rockies and into the
northwest Conus. There will be limited moisture with this front
generally confined below 775 mb or 800 mb. Time height sections
generate some omega late tonight and on Tuesday morning within
this moist layer and the low level flow will become briefly
upslope behind the boundary.
Some light rain, sprinkles, or drizzle will be possible late
tonight and into Tuesday morning, with chances lingering longest
near the VA border in the Harlan and Letcher county vicinity to
midday or early afternoon. Pops in the 10 to 20 percent range
were used. Initial clear skies and slackening winds around or
after sunset may allow for sheltered eastern valleys to drop into
the mid to upper 40s during the evening, before clouds increase
and temperatures there rise with the mixiness associated with the
front. Temperatures will still be near normal for highs in the far
north and the 50s to low 60s south and above normal by 5 to 10
degrees or more there.
Tuesday night, a shortwave trough emerging from the southwest
Conus after moving out of the trough that will have neared the
west coast of the Conus will track into the Plains to Ozarks
vicinity with another trough behind it working across the Rockies
and nearing the Plains. Low pressure should continue to develop
in the TX to OK panhandle with the boundary extending into the
Southeast starting to lift north. Models have varying amounts of
moisture returning into eastern KY with some that only suggest
clouds while the higher resolution models like the NAM or HRRR
which have greater moisture depth and have some light QPF in
recent runs. Opted to keep pops around 10 percent in the
northwest and 20 for much of the area further south where some
guidance generated QPF. More substantial precipitation chances
will arrive early in the long term period. Temperatures on Tue
night should range from the mid 30s further north and east to the
low 40s southwest or on the order of 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 549 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
Progressive and more zonal-like flow will control over the CONUS
through the end of the work week, before amplification takes place
this weekend and into early next week, as deeper and broader
troughing evolves to our west. The models are in good agreement
with the long wave pattern, but differ on the details of the
smaller-scale features. These differences become increasingly
important for the latter half of the extended, as we will be in an
active period weather-wise. For now, have continued with the
blended approach, while incorporating some of the 12z model
guidance trends.
Short wave ridging will start out aligned from south central
Canada through the middle Mississippi Valley, with a short wave
trough riding east northeast across the central/southern Rockies.
At the surface, arctic high pressure will be sprawled from Upstate
New York through the Great Lakes and into the Upper Midwest, while
a stationary frontal boundary is positioned from the Deep South
through southern Plains. Through the middle of the week, this
boundary will shift northeast as a warm front, as lee-side low
pressure spills across the middle Mississippi Valley/southern
Plains, and eventually the Ohio Valley. Showers, along with a few
rumbles of thunder at times, will overspread eastern Kentucky
from southwest to northeast, especially Wednesday night into
Thursday, when the better 850 mb moisture transport moves through
the area. Fortunately, the GFS, which had been the bullish model
has trended leaner on QPF during this time frame, with most
locations looking at around an inch, with locally higher amounts,
where any more convective bands occur. A cold front will sweep
through the area by Thursday night, bringing a temporary end to
the precipitation, with Friday looking like the only dry day.
This dryness will be short-lived, as potent short wave energy
makes its way onshore across the West Coast, and then traversed
east across the northern quarter of the CONUS. This will result
in more lee-side cyclogenesis, with deeper low pressure moving
from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley on Saturday,
allowing for another progressive warm front and eventual cold
front to shift across eastern Kentucky. Another beefier shot of
associated moisture transport will bring another two thirds of an
inch to inch of rainfall to eastern Kentucky, keeping soils
saturated and renewing some good rises on area rivers by that
time, although this system does move through quickly, so the risk
of particularly excessive rainfall looks low right now. As colder
air moves in late Sunday night into early Monday morning, some of
the lingering lighter precipitation could change over to snow by
that time, although with the prolonged period of well above normal
temperatures preceding this, impacts look minimal at this point.
Beyond Monday, all eyes look toward how the next progressive
short wave trough evolves within broader west southwest flow
aloft upstream. This will dictate on whether we see a growing
threat of more significant hydro problems by that time or not.
Highs will peak on Thursday and Saturday, with readings in mid to
upper 60s, with cooler readings in the 40s and 50s following the
first cold frontal passage on Friday, and then mainly 40s
occurring on Monday proceeding the second cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST MON FEB 3 2025
VFR conditions were reported at all airports to begin the
forecast period. A cold front approaches through the evening and
overnight, crossing KSYM beginning around 09z and the remainder of
terminals by ~13z. Winds to begin the period will again increase
aloft while surface winds decrease, resulting in LLWS between 00z
and just a few hours before frontal passage. As for clouds and any
potential precipitation, clouds at low levels will increase with
MVFR cigs forecast to develop around or shortly after 06Z in all
areas. MVFR cigs and areas of IFR cigs should then persist near
and behind the boundary through the end of the period, except in
more northern locations such as KSYM where clouds may begin to
scatter by ~17z. Along with the MVFR ceilings some patchy light
rain or drizzle will also be possible, but visibility reductions
below 6SM are not forecast at this time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 7:26 PM EST---------------
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