ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 9:00 AM EST996
FXUS61 KILN 291400
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
900 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle over the area tonight, exiting to the
east and bringing southerly flow to the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Thursday evening, rain will overspread the region well ahead of
a surface low that will track from Missouri to near Lake Erie by
Friday afternoon. The threat for rain ends later Friday as the
surface low tracks northeast during the time an upper low
weakens into an open wave over the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A surface low will move further northeast of the Ohio Valley today
as high pressure builds in from the west. The pressure gradient
weakens through the day which will lead to lighter winds by the
afternoon. Sunny and dry conditions support highs reaching into the
40s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west overnight. In
response, winds will quickly decrease to 5-10 mph in the evening
and drop to under 5 mph by midnight. With the weakening wind
field will come a veering direction from west to southwest and
south.
Clear skies and light wind will see temperatures uniformly drop
to around 26 degrees across the CWA. Closer to daybreak, high
clouds will begin to enter from the southwest, quickly
blanketing the CWA by mid-morning in response to the next
incoming system.
The incoming rain will follow the flow and enter from the
southwest, reaching the Cincy metro area by sunset. Forecast
ran with a gradually increasing pop starting at zero at noon,
rising to a 50% chance by nightfall. Dayton and Columbus metro
areas will be slower on the uptick with the incoming rain, only
seeing chances of 30% (Dayton) and ~20% (Columbus) by nightfall.
To the southwest of Cincinnati along the ILN/LMK interface,
rain will become likely by early evening.
High temperatures will run from the mid 40s in the north to the
lower 50s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night, our attention will be focused on the mid
level closed low forecast to rotate from the central/southern
Plains to the middle/lower Mississippi River Valley. a plume of
deep moisture with above normal pwats (300%-350% of normal per
ECMWF ensemble mean compared to its 30 year climatology) will
surge northward out of the Gulf ahead of surface low pressure
approaching from the west. This moisture transport will be
associated with a fairly strong 60-70 knot low level jet.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected. This
period will have the heaviest rainfall/QPF with this system. It
looks like about 0.75 inches of QPf are forecast across the far
north with perhaps about 1.50 inches in our far south/southwest.
Rivers remain low, and we should see some rises, but they
should not be of a concern as of now. With the ground being
somewhat frozen, the heavier rainfall may result in some
ponding/pooling of water in farm fields and poor drainage areas.
WPC has our far southern/southwestern CWFA under a MRGL risk of
exceeding FFG. Right now will continue with a PROB LOW mention
in the HWO and will continue to monitor trends if amounts should
increase from current values. Lows will occur early on (upper
30s north/lower 40s south), then they will slowly rise
overnight.
For Friday into Friday night, as the mid level closed low
begins to open up and pick up speed while it heads east, surface
low pressure will traverse across northern Indiana and northern
Ohio during the day. The heavier pcpn will shift east during
the morning with more scattered or intermittent rain expected
during the day. Highs will range from the upper 40s north to the
lower 60s south. By Friday night, the low will have exited,
followed by a cold front. Pcpn will taper off and end during the
evening. A few wet snowflakes may mix in across the far north.
In the CAA pattern behind the front, lows will range from the
mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.
In a quasi-zonal mid level flow pattern, high pressure will
move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday,
then it will move east of the region Saturday night. Low
pressure is then forecast to move east across the Great Lakes
into New England Sunday into Monday. This will eventually push a
cold front southeast through the region during the day Monday.
This system appears moisture starved and thus will continue with
a dry forecast. It will be colder on Saturday, with highs
ranging from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. WAA
ahead of the front will boost temperatures into the 50s on
Sunday, followed by lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast
on Monday.
High pressure will then build in from the northwest Monday
night into Tuesday. CAA will result in cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR skies/vsbys will be found with maybe some passing cirrus
cloud cover. A more westerly wind is in store for today, though
there is currently a southwest component found along and
southeast of the I-71 corridor, affecting all but KDAY at
issuance time. Expect 10-15kt at CVG/LUK but a stronger 15-20kt
for terminals north of ILN. These winds and their associated
higher 20-25kt gusts will diminish before sunset as a center of
high pressure passes south of the region. Lighter west wind
5-8kt this evening will shift south towards daybreak and become
even lighter at under 5kt.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 9:00 AM EST---------------
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