JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 4:35 PM EST211
FXUS63 KJKL 312135
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will overall average well above normal through the
middle of next week.
- Minor flooding of poor drainage and low-lying areas will
diminish this evening.
- Significant rises are expected on mainstem rivers over the next
12 to 24 hours with some locations approaching minor flood
stage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 435 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
Regional radar shows the back edge of the rain shield departing far
southeastern Kentucky late this afternoon with the passage of the
occluding front and skies are partially clearing from the west.
Event total rainfall amounts from automated observation stations
have ranged from 1.21 inches at Morehead up to 2.78 inches atop
Big Black Mountain. Overall rainfall amounts have been towards the
higher side of guidance with most locations picking up 1.50 to
2.25 inches. Given the overall higher end rainfall amounts, Areal
Flood Advisories were hoisted across much of the area to account
for observed minor low-lying and poor drainage flooding. Those
advisories will expire this evening as streamflows subside.
Additionally, Flood Advisories have been issued for elevated flows
along the Red River near Clay City and the South Fork Kentucky
River near Oneida and Booneville. Flood Warnings have also been
issued for the mainstem Kentucky River downstream of Beattyville
as current forecasts suggest that minor flood stage could be
breached at Heidelberg and Ravenna. Observations will need to be
watched closely for potential flows reaching Action Stage along
the Big Sandy River at Pikeville and Prestonsburg later this
weekend. Aside from the rainfall, temperatures are mild, ranging
from the mid 50s to near 60s. Winds have also been a little gusty
from the southwest, especially behind the front, at 20 to 30 mph.
The aforementioned front is associated with an ~1003mb low
pressure system passing north of the Ohio River. A secondary
trough extends southwest from the low through western Kentucky/
Tennessee and beyond into Mississippi. Another cold front
stretches west from the surface low out into the Central Plains.
As the surface low weakens and races off the Atlantic Seaboard
over the next 12 hours, the secondary surface trough will pass
through eastern Kentucky this evening. Hi-res guidance supports a
line of convection developing along this boundary and affecting
locations primarily south of the Mountain Parkway between 22z and
02z. This activity could be briefly heavy, but will be very
progressive, dropping a quick tenth to one third of an inch at
most affected locations. Later in the night, the next cold front
will drop in from the north, bringing a low overcast and the
threat for a few more isolated light showers while turning winds
northerly. After temperatures peak this evening in the upper 50s
to lower 60s at most locations, they will drop through the night
to the low/mid 30s north of the Mountain Parkway and upper 30s to
near 40 further south. Noticeably cooler temperatures with
variable cloud cover are expected for Saturday and Saturday night
as Canadian high pressure brushes past, well to our north and
east. Anticipate temperatures maxing out only in the mid 40s north
to around 50 south on Saturday before settling back into the
lower/middle 30s on Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
By Sunday morning, and upper level low will be digging south across
the Pacific Northwest, while the West Coast will be enduring an
atmospheric river. At the same time a short-wave trough will
racing across southern Canada and the Great Lakes. Sunday looks
fairly quiet across eastern Kentucky, with a mix of sun and
clouds, under southwesterly winds, and highs in the 60s and lows
in the low 40s.
Monday, the state will remain under southwesterly flow, allowing
for warm air to advect into the area. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 60s as a result, with lows in the low to mid 40s. With that
shortwave trough passing across the Great Lakes, some sprinkles
may result heading into the evening and early Tuesday.
Tuesday, aside from early morning sprinkles, the day should
largely remain dry. The next system however will be developing
just west of the state during the day. Highs are expected to range
from the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Wednesday through Thursday, showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible as the next weather system works its
way across the state. Highs each day are forecast to reach in the
upper 60s, with a few spots possibly hitting 70. Lows Wednesday
night are expected to be warmer than normal, only dropping into
the mid to upper 50s. Colder lows Thursday night are expected,
getting into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday, mainly dry weather should return to the state, with the
most recent system departing the area, however a shower or two may
linger. Temperatures are forecast to be colder than those seen
mid-week, with highs only in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2025
Challenging flying conditions persist over most of eastern
Kentucky at TAF issuance. A combination of MVFR and VFR ceilings
can be expected along with rainfall of varying intensity expected
until the precipitation tapers off from the west, generally within
in the next hour along the Escarpment and by around 21z in far
eastern Kentucky. Fog will also reduce the visibilities at times.
Conditions should gradually improve once the steady rain ends.
However, another round of showers is possible this evening across
southern Kentucky, especially at SME and LOZ in the 22z to 02z
timeframe. Cannot rule out an isolated shower at JKL and SJS as
well but confidence was too low to mention in the TAF at this
time. A cold front will drop in from the northwest late tonight
with low MVFR to IFR ceilings and the possibility for a few more
isolated showers. Southwest winds of 8 to 12 kts could gust to
between 20 and 25 kts at times this afternoon before veering west
to northerly overnight into Saturday morning and also weakening
slightly.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 4:35 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
