CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 12:39 AM EST395
FXUS61 KCLE 300539
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1239 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move to the east this morning. In its wake, a
warm front will lift north across the area on Thursday. Broad low
pressure tracks across the region on Friday, followed by high
pressure on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Relatively quiet conditions ensue as high pressure becomes
centered over the area over the next several hours. Should see a
substantial temperature increase on Thursday as that high
departs to the east.
Previous Discussion...
A cold front front stretches from the western end of Lake Erie
east-southeastward through northeast Ohio and west central
Pennsylvania this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and some
lake enhanced snow showers are occurring with this slow moving
cold front as it drifts southward. This frontal boundary will
end up stalling out and fizzling out this evening. As for
additional chances for snow showers, that will be confined to
mainly NEOH and NWPA this afternoon through this evening. The
better dynamics for heavier snow showers will stay east of our
area this afternoon. Any snowfall accumulations will be limited
to an inch or less across far NEOH and NWPA through early this
evening.
High pressure will build in tonight with clearing skies.
Temperatures will drop into the teens over northwest
Pennsylvania and far northeast Ohio. Elsewhere, temperatures
will drop to the low to mid 20s across northern Ohio. Thursday
looks be a nicer day with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
expected. Clouds will be on the increase later in the day ahead
of the next storm system. High temperatures on Thursday will be
in the upper 30s over NWPA and lower to middle 40s across
northern Ohio. Low pressure from the central CONUS will start
moving into the Ohio Valley tonight. Widespread light rain will
move in from the southwest overnight Thursday with temperatures
staying above freezing in the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will lift northeast from the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the central Great Lakes Friday morning before
sweeping east across the local area Friday afternoon. Return
flow/isentropic lift ahead of the low will result in widespread
rain across the entire area Friday morning into the afternoon
before precipitation chances begin to taper off from the west as
the surface low and its associated upper trough axis move east
of the CWA Friday evening/Friday night. Storm total QPF
(including Thursday night) will range from about a half an inch
to three-quarters of an inch for most of the area, but can't
rule out isolated spots approaching an inch south of U.S. Route
30. The warming temperatures/dew points in addition to moderate
rainfall will result in snowmelt, but currently thinking the
melting will be gradual enough to preclude any snowmelt flooding
hazards. Ice on area rivers will likely begin to melt/break up
and a few spots may experience some minor ice jams/ice jam
flooding Friday into the weekend, however the risk is marginal
since most of the large problem spots have relatively thin ice
and periodic sunshine has already allowed for some gradual
melting.
Cold air advection will develop on the back
side of this system and there may be some light lake-enhanced
rain/snow showers (although lake-induced instability will be
minimal), but PoPs are relatively low since 850mb moisture will
rapidly decrease as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Dry
weather will return by Saturday morning as the aforementioned ridge
and surface high pressure move over the region.
Friday will be the warmest day of the workweek with highs climbing
into the 40s areawide. The warmest temperatures will be generally
along and south of U.S. 30, where highs may climb into the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Expect Friday night's lows to drop into the 20s; there
may be some issues with lingering moisture freezing as temperatures
drop. Saturday's highs will be in the low to mid 30s with lows in
the 20s across the area, but locations in NW PA will likely remain
in the 20s during the day Saturday with lows in the teens Saturday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will lift into the region Sunday, resulting in a return
to above normal temperatures into Monday. A shortwave trough may
ripple across the area at some point Sunday into early Monday, but
still some uncertainty in the timing/placement of the best forcing
in addition to how much moisture will be in place once any upper
level energy arrives. Opted for slight chance to chance (20 to 40
percent) PoPs for the time being and will adjust precipitation
chances as guidance becomes aligned a bit better. Cold front will
likely cross the area Monday, although frontal passage may be
relatively dry since the best forcing will likely remain to the
northeast of the CWA. Dry weather is favored as a ridge builds into
the region Tuesday, but the next disturbance may cross the CWA as
early as Wednesday.
Sunday's highs will be in the 40s with upper 40s to lower 50s likely
in the western half of the area. Warm air advection will allow
overnight lows to remain in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday night.
Monday's temperatures will peak in the 40s and lower 50s, but temps
will be back in the 20s by Monday night. Highs will be in the 30s
(possibly lower 40s in southern zones) with lows in the 20s Tuesday
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR observed areawide and will continue through the vast
majority of the TAF period. A low pressure system brings
gradually thickening clouds from the southwest, as well as an
expansive precipitation shield Thursday night. As light to
moderate rain builds in from the southwest, should see ceilings
and visibilities quickly drop to MVFR, and then within 2-3
hours down to IFR areawide Thursday night.
Near calm winds overnight become southerly in the 8-12 knot
range Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. A few gusts in
the 18-22 knot range will be possible during the afternoon
hours.
Outlook...IFR or lower is expected areawide with rain Friday
into Friday night. Non-VFR is possible with isolated to
scattered rain/snow for Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Sunday through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots late this afternoon into early
evening will gradually diminish to 10 knots or less and shift to the
southwest overnight. Winds will remain southwesterly at 15 knots or
less Thursday into Friday, but expect winds to back to the northwest
and increase to 15 to 20 knots for a period Friday evening into
Friday night. Flow shifts to the east/southeast Saturday into Sunday
before veering to the southwest behind a warm front Sunday. The
passage of a cold front on Monday will allow winds to become
northwesterly. Winds will remain below 20 knots Saturday through
Monday.
Any ice growth on the lake will be slow over the next several days
given temperatures periodically rising above freezing. Even if ice
cover on the lake decreases, waves will likely remain below 6 feet.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley, NY due to extensive
ice cover.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley, NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 12:39 AM EST---------------
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