JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 4:44 AM EST402
FXUS63 KJKL 290944
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will gradually trend to well above normal through
Friday.
- A system will approach the area Thursday and then bring a
soaking rain from late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 444 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
Early this morning an upper level trough extended from eastern
Canada across the Great Lakes and into the eastern Conus. Upper
level ridging extended across the Caribbean to the Gulf with
ridging northwest across eastern TX and OK to NE. Upper level
ridging was also over the eastern Pacific into the Northwestern
Conus. In between these two areas of ridging, a closed low was
centered southwest of the Four Corners region over AZ. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was centered over southern/
southeastern Ontario with a trailing cold front across the Great
Lakes to Upper MS Valley and northwest to the Dakotas before
becoming stationary as it extended north into Canada. A ridge of
sfc high pressure centered across the Gulf coast states. A sfc
trough was approaching the Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, a wavy
frontal zone extended from the Gulf to the TX Gulf coast and then
near or south of the Rio Grande Valley and then north into NM.
Today and tonight, the axis of the upper level troughing extending
from Canada and into the eastern Conus is progged to move on off
to the east and northeast of the Commonwealth while shortwave
upper ridging builds east to the mid to low MS River Valley. The
more western upper level ridge should build east to near the west
coast of the Conus. The closed low is expected to meander
northeast and become a bit more enlongated with time with the
center of it reaching the TX/OK panhandle/NE NW/SE CO/W KS area
toward dawn on Thursday. As this occurs, the sfc trough is
expected to work across the Commonwealth today with little if any
clouds associated with it. Daytime heating and the passage of the
features should result in gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph at times
during the late morning into the afternoon hours. A sfc high
pressure ridge should work across the area behind this trough
crossing eastern KY tonight. Otherwise, sfc low pressure is
expected to evolve/develop over eastern NM and western TX today.
The parent low should track into eastern CO through tonight while
a triple point low reaches the Red River Valley along the TX/OK
border. Meanwhile the boundary to the east that had been over the
Gulf should lift northeast into eastern TX to LA and the MS delta
region by dawn on Thursday.
On Thursday, the center of the upper level low is expected to
meander to the SW KS to OK panhandle area while the axis of
shortwave ridging moves northeast in advance of it. A shortwave or
two should also move in the southwest flow form the Southern
Plains to the mid MS Valley to Lower OH Valley by the end of the
period. In response to all of this at the mid and upper levels, an
occluded sfc low should track to south of the KS City area while
the triple point sfc low should track into AR and the warm front
should continue lifting northeast into western to southern Middle
TN to northern FL by early Thursday evening. Moisture will be
transported on southwest or west southwest flow over the warm
front and into the Commonwealth as the sfc and upper system
approaches. 00Z HREF means have PW increasing from the 0.3 to 0.4
inch range a daybreak on Thursday to 0.4 to 0.6 inch range at
midday and then more dramatically into the 0.8 to 1 inch range by
early Thursday evening as the south southwest to southwest flow in
the 925 to 500 mb layer increases. The flow in the lowest levels
will be south or even south southeast into the southeastern
portions of the area on Thursday, however.
Precipitation free weather is expected across eastern KY into
Thursday morning as high pressure builds in behind the sfc trough
with 500 mb heights also increasing ahead of shortwave ridging.
Clouds at high level should increase late tonight into early on
Thursday as the axis of the upper ridge shifts northeast of the
area with mid clouds following by midday into the afternoon with
low clouds to follow. A band of rain or showers should lift
northeast into the Commonwealth from midday into the afternoon as
isentropic lift increases with this reaching eastern KY by late
in the afternoon to early evening. Rainfall will be light to end
the period, though moisture will increase early in the long term
period with more substantial rain to arrive.
Temperatures should continue the warming trend into today and
Thursday, especially for highs with upper 40s to mid 50s today and
then highs ranging through the 50s on Thursday. High pressure for
tonight though will set the stage for ridge/valley split with
deeper sheltered valleys decoupling. Lows there should be in the
low to mid 20s with around 30 or lower 30s for more open terrain
locations and coalfield ridgetops.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
Currently, snow is falling across Arizona and the Desert
Southwest due to an upper level low over the region. By Thursday
this low will track eastward, across the Rocky Mountains and into
the Southern High Plains. Rain will form out ahead of an occluded
front, warm front, and cold front extending across an area from
the Ohio River Valley and the Till Plains, southwest to the Gulf
over southern Texas.
For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, on Thursday, expect
increasing clouds through the morning, along with an uptick in
southerly winds heading into the afternoon. As the system
approaches eastern Kentucky, rain chances will increase heading
into the late afternoon and evening. Current models suggest
heaviest rains will occur overnight Thursday into Friday, with the
heaviest amounts north of the Mountain Parkway. Temperatures on
Thursday will peak in the mid to upper 50s for most areas. With
overcast and rain Thursday night, lows are only expected to drop
into the mid to 40s.
Friday, rain showers will continue with the steadiest occurring in
the morning hours, tapering off in coverage and intensity heading
into the afternoon. However, while some dynamics such as surface and
upper level forcing is marginal, in some model data, CAPE and
steepening lapse rates support the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Freezing levels look particularly low
in model guidance suggesting any thunderstorms that were to develop,
may produce sub-severe hail. With a strong push of warm air from
southwesterly winds, highs on Friday will attempt to break into the
low 60s. Winds will be breezy, with gusts up to 20-25 mph in spots.
As the system departs Friday evening, lows are expected to drop into
the mid 30s.
Saturday through Monday night, zonal flow will allow for quiet
weather to return during this stretch of time. Highs are expected to
be in the upper 40s on Saturday, with lows dropping into the low to
mid 30s at night. Highs Sunday will approach 60 across eastern
Kentucky. Cloudy skies and southwesterly winds are expected to
stay somewhat elevated during the night; temperatures Sunday
night are expected to trend warmer during the overnight, dropping
into the low 40s. Monday, some clouds may dissipate, with highs in
the 50s during the day, before cooling into the upper 20s to low
30s Monday night.
Tuesday, should remain dry, with a possibility of the next system
developing just west of the state during the day. If this were the
case, some shower activity may be move into the area later Tuesday
evening. Models are split on this solution, so rain chances have
been left out of the forecast at this current time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR conditions were reported at TAF issuance time and will
prevail through the period. Southwest to west winds generally
between 5 and 10 KT if not a bit higher in some spots with gusts
to around 20KT were reported particularly on ridgetops and in
more open terrain locations. At the same time, winds aloft per
KJKL VWP are rather robust out of the west south west at 40KT at
the 3kft msl level and west at 45KT at the 4kft msl levels.
Despite some mixiness and gustiness in many areas, there will
still be a threat of LLWS from the southwest to west at 40 to 50KT
during the first 12 hours of the period. The combination of winds
aloft slackening and daytime mixing will end the threat for LLWS
during the 12Z to 15Z timeframe for all areas. Winds will average
southwest to west at 5 to 15KT from 12Z to 18Z with gusts as high
as 20 to 25KT. Winds will become northwesterly thereafter at 5 to
15KT with gusts to around 20KT from 18Z to 22Z, before slackening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 4:44 AM EST---------------
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