CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 1:08 AM EST665
FXUS61 KCLE 290608
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening followed by a
cold front moving southeast Wednesday morning. High pressure returns
Wednesday night into Thursday before another low pressure system
impacts the area on Friday. High pressure returns this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM... Recent water vapor imagery reveals multiple shortwave
disturbances along a broad upper-level trough across the Upper
Great Lakes this evening, with surface observations placing a
986mb surface low near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Wind
gusts continue to overperform this evening as a low-level jet
of 55 to 60 knots moves east across northern Ohio. Thus, the
threat for 40 to 45 mph wind gusts will likely continue through
about midnight.
Attention then turns towards the snow squall potential tomorrow
morning, though confidence has wavered somewhat, mainly due to
the abundance of mid-level dry air present near the DGZ. This
dry mid- level air is also apparent on upstream water vapor
imagery which could limit the efficiency and coverage of snow
showers/squalls Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The
only exception might be across Northwest Pennsylvania where
moisture will be slightly deeper, reaching the DGZ.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front associated with a low centered near Lake Superior
will continue to lift north this evening. There is a slight
chance of additional light snow showers ahead of this boundary,
primarily driven by weak frontogenetic forcing and an increase
in moisture advection. Additional snowfall accumulations today
will remain less than 0.5". Within the warm sector of this low,
a strong LLJ of 60-70 knots is expected to push south across the
CWA. Mixing heights this afternoon are just over 2kft which is
resulting in wind gusts of 25- 30 mph. Overnight, the strongest
part of the jet will arrive, but given the more stable
atmosphere and lower mixing heights, expecting the gusts to
remain in the 25-35 mph range.
Late tonight into early Wednesday morning, an arctic front
associated with the aforementioned low pressure will move southeast
across the area, ushering in another quick burst of colder
temperatures across NE OH and NW PA. Ahead and along this boundary,
a nose of vorticity aloft, increased frontogenetic forcing, ample
moisture, and increasing lapse rates will result in additional
snowfall across far NE OH and NW PA. There is increasing confidence
in the potential for snow squalls across this area, especially mid
to late morning on Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain elevated
so any new snowfall will also have the potential to blow and drift,
further enhancing the potential impacts. Cannot rule out some impact
on the tale end of the Wednesday morning commute. Motorists should
use caution as rapidly changing visibilities will be possible during
this time. Behind the departing front, 850mb temperatures across
Lake Erie will drop to -12 to -15C with winds maintaining a
northwest fetch. Models suggest a convergent boundary developing over
NW PA and areas east which will likely result in additional snowfall
in the form of lake effect into Wednesday night. Overall snowfall
totals for this entire period will range from 2-4" in NW PA and
generally up to 1" possible in far NE OH. Some areas may see locally
higher amounts where any heavy snowfall band persists. By Wednesday
night, high pressure returns, gradually ending any snowfall
potential from west to east by Thursday morning.
High temperatures Wednesday will be a bit cooler than today,
reaching into the low to mid 30s with the exception of the
southwestern portion of the CWA which will climb into the upper 30s.
Overnight lows tonight will remain mild in the low to mid 30s, but
will be much cooler on Wednesday night with lows dropping into the
20s for much of the area and into the teens for far NE OH and NW
PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low level warm air advection, flow aloft turning southwesterly, and
overrunning precipitation highlight the beginning of the short term
due to a southern stream low pressure system tracking into the
forecast area. Thursday night time frame for the arrival of the rain
in the southwestern zones of the CWA. Isentropic ascent best seen on
the 295K surface works its way through the CWA ahead of the surface
low, possibly in a couple of waves, as the surface low tracks into
the heart of the CWA from the WSW around 15Z Friday. Should be a
fairly quick moving system, but still have fairly high probabilities
for rainfall exceeding one inch from Wood County southeastward to
Holmes and areas southwest of that line. Trailing surface trough
along the lakeshore keeps the precipitation going as the
upper/surface systems exit to the east into Friday night.
Precipitation type will change from rain to snow showers in the cold
air advection in the wake of the system for later Friday into Friday
night, but no significant accumulations in the forecast for right
now. Temperatures that had been above freezing Thursday and Friday
will drop sharply Friday night into the mid teens/lower 20s across
the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in for the weekend with some chillier air
for Saturday as the CWA stays below freezing again, but not as cold
of an airmass coming out of Canada that has been characteristic of
much of January. Warm front/return surface flow for Sunday, possibly
clipping the CWA with precipitation, but the main energy to this low
pressure system will be well to the north in the northern plains
region pushing towards the northern Great Lakes. After a day
Saturday mainly below freezing except for the far southern zones, a
dramatic milder push of air expected Sunday with widespread 40s, but
still only upper 30s for NW PA. Flow aloft turns zonal, and another
cold front expected near the end of the long term forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the board at 6z which will continue for the next
several hours. A cold front will move southeast across the area
between about 13-20z today. Ceilings below 5000 feet will
develop just ahead of the front, with snow showers and perhaps a
squall likely accompanying the front from CLE and CAK points
east. Some lighter activity may occur farther west, though with
lower confidence and limited restrictions, so just handled with
a VCSH mention at MFD. Tried to use TEMPOs and FM groups to give
a best idea on timing of snow showers and the greatest
potential for heavier activity with greater restrictions from
CLE and CAK points east. Ceilings may dip to MVFR within any
snow showers and for a few hours behind the front across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lake effect may keep snow showers
going into the evening in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA,
including at ERI and perhaps YNG, though as high pressure builds
out of the Ohio Valley tonight expect this activity to wind
down with all sites returning to VFR overnight.
Southwest winds 10-20kt with gusts generally up to 30kt continue
early this morning. Winds will remain brisk, increasing to
12-22kt after sunrise with gusts 30-35kt, veering more west-
northwest behind the cold front. Briefly stronger gusts to 40kt
could occur at CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI in any squalls along the
cold front, mainly between 13-17z. Winds begin shifting more
west-southwest into this evening and slackening quickly as high
pressure builds in. With surface winds starting to subtly back
right now as gusts and sustained values back off a bit from
what they were earlier, went ahead and put LLWS back in the TAFs
for the next several hours. Mixing will increase quickly
13-14z, ending the LLWS threat.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, especially across Northeast OH and Northwest
PA. Non- VFR likely areawide in mainly rain and/or snow Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds increase again from the southwest for a few hours, peaking
around 06Z Wednesday in the eastern basin at just barely below gale
criteria for a few hours as low pressure tracks through the Great
Lakes. The bulk of the lake remains covered in varying thicknesses
of ice, but for the most part in high concentrations. Some open
water still exists east of Long Point in the open waters off New
York.
Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts Wednesday, and then
southwesterly once again Wednesday night around 10kts. These
southwesterly winds will increase Thursday to 10-20kts before
becoming variable around 10kts Friday as low pressure passes across
Lake Erie.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley, NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 29, 1:08 AM EST---------------
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