PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 11:41 AM CST099
FXUS63 KPAH 251741
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a very cold mid-month, temperatures warm to near normal
for the weekend, rising to above normal for much of the week
ahead.
- The next chance for precipitation is now projected to arrive
late week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
A band of high clouds is moving eastward just to the north of
the I-64 corridor. Otherwise, clear skies are present for most
of the Quad State through the remainder of the overnight hours.
Areas where winds became calm have dipped to the lower 20s.
Otherwise, temperatures are holding in the mid to upper 20s in
southwesterly flow around 4-8 mph.
High pressure is located over the Southeastern U.S. while a
system is moving across Northern Canada as upper-levels have
zonal flow. Southwesterly winds become breezy today ahead of a
dry cold frontal passage tonight. Highs today lift to the mid
to upper 40s with a few 50s possible. High pressure drops from
the Dakotas towards the region Sunday bringing a temporary
cooling to near normal temperatures for Sunday. A system drifts
across the south Sunday with some models bringing rain to the
KY/TN border, a possible later inclusion though for now the
forecast will remain dry with this system.
Troughing digs in the east early week though local 500mb levels
remain fairly steady. Low pressure dipping into the Great Lakes
Wednesday brings another dry frontal passage through. Models are
increasingly pointing towards precipitation Wed/Thurs being
associated with a drifting system over Texas rather than energy
being ejected from a closed low in California. The closed low
finally emerges from the Four Corners region late week and
lifts northeastward through the Plains as a large area of high
pressure is set up over the East Coast. Models differ on
surface low development, either associating it with the upper
low in the Plains or with the Texas disturbance that kicks
northeastward late week. For now it appears that late Thursday
night through Friday into Saturday has the better chances for
precip. There is some potential for mixing of snow Thursday
night before switching over to rain Friday, but appreciable
wintry accumulations are unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There will be a
increase in high and some mid clouds tonight with the approach
and passage of a dry cold front. Winds this afternoon will be
from the southwest at 8 to 15 kts with some gusts near 20 kts
possible. Winds will become light southwest after 23z,
gradually shifting to the northwest to north between 07z-11z,
and increasing to around 5 kts. No vsby restrictions.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 11:41 AM CST---------------
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