PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:33 AM EST454
FXUS61 KPBZ 261133
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow chances south and east of Pittsburgh will end this morning.
Otherwise, dry weather is expected today and Monday under weak
high pressure. Snow chances return Monday night and Tuesday with
a crossing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Patchy snow ends this morning
- Dry weather the rest of the day
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A weak shortwave trough, and surface cold front, were located
across western PA through northern WV. The best ascent and
moisture has shifted to the east of the area this morning,
though some light snow will still be possible through mid
morning, mainly across the PA and WV ridges, though moisture in
the dendritic zone is progged to decrease according to the
latest model soundings.
Otherwise, dry weather is then expected today as weak surface
ridging begins to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Mixing and a sufficient surface pressure gradient will result in
wind gusts to around 20 mph today, with higher gusts across the
ridges. Temperatures have been slow to fall this morning in weak
cold advection. Blended in the latest LAMP guidance for
hourly temperatures today, which results in a small increase in
highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry through Monday
- Snow and gusty wind return Monday night and Tuesday with a
cold front
- Snow chances again late Tuesday night north of PIT with a
warm front
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry weather will continue tonight and Monday under weak surface
ridging. An upper trough is progged to cross the region
tonight, with just cloud cover expected. Clouds will clear
behind the trough on Monday, with highs again near seasonable
levels.
A shortwave trough, and its associated surface cold front, are
expected to track across SE Canada and the Great Lakes region
Monday night, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region on Tuesday.
The best upper level supported ascent is expected to remain
north of the region, with the front gradually weakening as it
tracks south. At this time, scattered snow showers are expected
with the approach and passage of the front. Model generated snow
squall parameter also quickly diminishes as the front track
south.
Generally dry weather will return late Tuesday as weak surface
high pressure builds in, though snow chances return Tuesday
night north of PIT as a warm front tracks across the region.
Gusty wind is also expected late Monday into Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens in the vicinity of the front. There
is a potential for advisory level wind gusts (45-55mph) across
eastern Tucker county during this period as well. Will highlight
this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. In coordination
with neighboring NWS offices, did not issue a high wind watch as
the strongest gusts are expected to be in the downslope areas
east of Tucker county.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow chances increase with Wednesday low pressure
- Dry Thursday
- Rain/snow chances return Friday and Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a trough will persist across the NE
CONUS through Thursday, before shifting eastward. A shortwave
and surface cold front are expected to cross the Upper Ohio
Valley region Wednesday, with snow chances increasing through
the day. This front should quickly exit Wednesday night, with
generally dry weather expected by Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in.
As the east coast trough shifts eastward, a Central CONUS trough
will begin to advance eastward by late week. Operational models
differ on the arrival of the trough, due to the strength of any
ridging ahead of it. For now maintained a forecast close to the
ensemble blend, which returns rain and snow chances to the
forecast Friday and Saturday. This portion of the forecast is
low confidence, with significant difference in the model
guidance. Temperatures are expected to warm by late week into
the weekend, with readings near or a few degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will complete its passage across the region
this morning. Any remaining light snow, generally near and south
of the Mason-Dixon Line, is forecast to taper off by 15Z.
FKL/DUJ, with flow off of an icing-up Lake Erie, should maintain
borderline MVFR ceilings through the morning before improving.
All other TAF sites have improved to VFR and are expected to
remain there as surface ridging builds in, with mainly middle
cloud cover.
West winds around 10 knots continue through early afternoon
with gusts generally to 15-20 knots. Winds relax this evening,
becoming light and southwesterly late in the TAF period.
Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected areawide on Monday. Periodic
restrictions and increasing precipitation chances are then
expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CL/Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 6:33 AM EST---------------
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