ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 6:26 PM EST932
FXUS61 KILN 222326
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
626 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cold weather continues tonight as high pressure over the
southern Plains builds over the Ohio Valley. A weak frontal
system on Thursday will bring clouds and perhaps some light snow
or flurries before high pressure and fair weather returns
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will warm to near normal
values this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley will provide fair weather tonight.
Temperatures will slowly drop through the teens with perhaps a
few cold spots reaching into the single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak frontal system will move through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Thursday. While the National Blend of Models keeps
us dry, can't rule out some light, fluffy snow based on a few of
the high-resolution models. Main impact from this wave will be
increasing clouds through the day. High temperatures will make
it up into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Cold high pressure will build back into the region Thursday
night. With very dry air and decreasing clouds, most locations
are likely to see temperatures fall through the teens into the
single digits above zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough axis will push off to the east through the day
on Friday as surface high pressure begins to build in from the west.
This will result in dry but continued cool conditions with afternoon
highs in the 20 to 25 degree range.
Zonal flow will set up aloft through the weekend as surface high
pressure generally remains in place across the Ohio Valley through
the weekend. Some weak southern stream energy and moisture looks to
remain mainly shunted off to our south through early next week. The
flow aloft will become a bit more amplified through mid week as some
weak mid level energy drops down across the Great Lakes. This may
eventually lead to some lower end pops by the end of the long term
period but will keep the forecast dry for now. Temperatures will
moderate back to more normal-like readings through the weekend with
even some above normal readings possible by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Some
mid level clouds will hang around and may even clear out during
the middle of the night before overspreading the region again
Thursday morning.
A weak low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes on
Thursday. The primary aviation impact will be some MVFR CIGs and
a shift in winds. MVFR CIGs will become more widespread by late
morning/early afternoon. A weak cold front will move through
during the afternoon, resulting in a wind shift from the
southwest to the WNW. Not expecting a notable increase in winds
as sustained winds of ~10 kts are expected Thursday.
Some light snow will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening
across the terminals. However, coverage appears pretty limited
and chances become even lower as you head southward towards the
OH River. Thus, only included a VCSH mention for our northern
terminals near I-70.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 6:26 PM EST---------------
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