JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 3:32 PM EST964
FXUS63 KJKL 232032
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
332 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front passing through overnight brings a chance for
flurries and a few snow showers this evening into early Friday.
A few snow showers may be locally intense with sudden, sharp
reductions to visibility and minor snow accumulations over and
in the vicinity of the Bluegrass region.
- Temperatures gradually moderate back toward normal by this
weekend.
- There are minor rain and/or snow chances at times from Sunday
night through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
The primary adjustment to the short-term forecast is to be a bit
more aggressive than the NBM with regards to PoPs for late this
afternoon into Friday, and to lower valley temperatures Friday night
across the area given weak low-level warm advection developing with
clear skies and light winds. It is in these scenarios that we
typically see the most significant ridge-valley splits.
As for the forecast overall, main concern through early Friday is
the potential for snow showers and flurries across much of the
forecast area in association with a passing cold front. The front
will pass through overnight, but snow shower chances will increase
from the west and northwest late this afternoon ahead of the front.
Behind the front, cold advection snow showers will likely be
enhanced by upslope flow across central and southeastern Kentucky.
An SPS will be issued for the activity early to mid-evening, as a
few of the MPAS CAMS and the GFS Snow Squall Parameter indicate that
a few of the snow showers could be locally intense in the far
northwestern part of the CWA. Sudden visibility reductions and minor
snow accumulations up to a quarter-inch are possible in the heaviest
snow showers. Models suggest this activity will weaken while
crossing the forecast area.
Subtle upper ridging builds over and to the west of the area within
west-northwesterly flow aloft Friday into Friday night. Clouds will
scatter first from northwest to southeast during the morning and
early afternoon Friday, with clearing from southwest to northeast in
the afternoon. By evening, optimal radiational cooling conditions
with weak low-level warm advection developing will promote
significant ridge-valley temperature differences/splits Friday night
into Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
A departing system moves out of eastern Kentucky later Friday,
clearing skies at night under light winds will help temperatures
drop into the single digits in valleys and low teens along
ridgetops.
Saturday, quiet weather looks to return to the state with dry
conditions and highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the upper
20s. Sunday, a area of confluence settles in west of Kentucky, with
a passing system in SE Canada, and another forming in the TX/LA
area. Quiet weather continues through Sunday with highs in the low
40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. As the system from the south
approaches, some flurries or light snow showers will be possible
across southern counties heading into Sunday night. By Monday, some
light rain or sprinkles will be possible in the morning before
slowly tapering off west to east. Highs Monday are forecasted in the
low 40s, with lows in the 20s and 30s.
Tuesday and Wednesday the low chance showers (10-20%) continue, with
model spread and uncertainty being the main culprit. There are
multiple models that show systems interacting northwest and
southwest of Kentucky, but do to placement and timing there is a
great deal of uncertainty what that will look like for the
Commonwealth. Currently little to no impacts are expected. Highs for
each day are forecasted in the 40s, with lows in the low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR conditions will hold until/through late afternoon, but will
trend toward MVFR conditions into the evening and overnight as a
cold front crosses and brings flurries and snow showers this
evening into the overnight, especially at SJS, SYM, and JKL. Winds
will generally be under 10 kts, though a few gusts to around 15
kts cannot be ruled out this afternoon near/west of I-75 and north
of I-64. Though low confidence, low clouds may linger and persist
through much of the remainder of the TAF period, especially toward
JKL and SJS, with the potential for scattering out of clouds at
the other terminals from northwest to southeast after 14z Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 23, 3:32 PM EST---------------
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