JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 1:06 AM EST614
FXUS63 KJKL 220606
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
106 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very minor snow accumulation are possible for the rest of this
evening in southeastern parts of the area as an arctic boundary
passes through eastern Kentucky.
- Apparent temperatures (wind chills) will fall to below zero for
much of the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.
- Temperatures gradually moderate back toward normal by this
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 106 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Last flurries and shallow clouds near the VA/KY border are drying
up early this morning. Skies are clear elsewhere as high pressure
builds across the Lower and Mid-Ohio Valley. Temperatures have
fallen mostly into the single digits above zero at most locations
south of the Mountain Parkway, except in the lower 10s in those
valley areas near the VA border where clouds have hung on the
longest. North of the Mountain Parkway, temperatures range from
near 0F to -7F. Can expect temperatures to drop off another 4 to
8 degrees in many location by morning. This will mean thermometer
readings of -10F or colder in the most sheltered northern hollows
to around 0F/low single digits on the warmer ridges and in the
deeper valleys along the VA/ KY border.
UPDATE Issued at 950 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
Some snow showers and flurries linger across the southeastern
counties with upslope low level flow per radar and satellite
imagery. Pops have been updated to reflect the most recent trends
with temperatures and dewpoint also adjusted to reflect
observation trends. The snow showers and flurries should continue
to taper off form northwest to southeast through around midnight
with skies becoming clear in all areas as Arctic high pressure
works across the Lower to Middle OH valley overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
Snow showers and flurries linger near and in advance of an arctic
cold front over the eastern and southeastern counties. These have
been producing a dusting to locally half an inch of snow as they
pass for some locations. SPS statements have been used for these.
Otherwise, behind the boundary skies clear and temperatures will
drop to near or below zero. Cold weather advisories remain in
effect through 10 AM EST on Wednesday for this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 410 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
20Z sfc analysis shows the latest arctic front moving southeast
through the JKL forecast area. This is bringing a band of light
snow with some visibility restrictions and up to a thick dusting
of fresh and fluffy snow as it passes. Flurries precede this
boundary as well. An SPS is tracking this feature late this
afternoon. The front is also bringing an uptick in winds from the
west to northwest at around 10 kts with gusts to near 20 kts.
Temperatures now vary from the mid teens north to the low 20s in
the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid
to upper single digits - though drier air will follow a few hours
behind the boundary as the arctic high pushes deeper into the
area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict one deep full-latitude trough
pushing through eastern Kentucky early this evening with its tail
sweeping east along the Gulf Coast - responsible for the winter
storm/blizzard warnings in that region. This wave passes tonight
allowing the mid level pattern to flatten for a time. On
Wednesday, more energy coming from the western Northern
Plains will start to carve out another trough over the western
Southern Plains into Thursday morning. More mid-level energy
will work east into Kentucky Wednesday night ahead of this
developing new full-latitude trough in fast west to southwest
flow. The model spread remains small aloft making the NBM a
reasonable starting point for the forecast grids, though with some
adjustments for PoPs into early evening per the radar trends. For
temperatures, the 5 percent values from the NBM were again used
in the valleys tonight and also Wednesday night - near 25 percent
elsewhere.
Sensible weather features the arctic boundary working through
eastern Kentucky into the early evening. Light snow and flurries
will accompany this front from northwest to southeast across the
area with reduced visibilities and a dusting of snow possible with
its passage. Clouds will clear quickly in the front's wake and
set the stage for another very cold night - perhaps the coldest of
this current spell. Due to light winds and the center of the high
moving past late tonight, the valleys will drop more dramatically
through the night with single digits below zero a good bet while
the surrounding area and ridges will settle into the low single
digits. Accordingly, the Cold Weather Advisory continues through
10 am Wednesday morning. Plenty of sunshine and winds becoming
southerly with the passing of the high will allow temperatures to
climb into the mid 20s to lower 30s across this part of the state
on Wednesday. That night, a bit more clouds and a warmer start to
the evening will keep temperatures from being quite so cold with
most places falling into the 10 to 15 degree range, through the
valleys will be as low as the mid single digits in the east.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
tweaking the PoPs up late this afternoon into the evening per
radar trends. Again temperatures were kept on the cool side of
the NBM PDF, at night, through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
Overall a fairly benign extended period, thankfully. Unfortunately
the cold temperatures aren't going to completely exit, however.
Upper level flow will continue to support NW flow into the
Commonwealth through the end of the work-week. The weekend sees the
return of more zonal flow to the region, before troughing begins to
work back in for Monday.
As for sensible weather, high pressure will be present across much
of Kentucky during the day Thursday, while a low pressure system and
upper level wave moves closer to the Great Lakes. Most the models
keep the precip related to this system to our north and out of the
CWA, which is also what the NBM suggests, but will be something to
look at in case some light pops do inch their way into portions of
the CWA. Meanwhile, another shortwave will be moving across the
state during the day Friday, with westerly flow at the surface which
may lead to some upslope pops briefly during the day. After two days
of NW flow, Friday will be the coldest day, with lows in the teens
and low 20s, and highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Temps improve a bit for the weekend as the zonal flow takes hold.
High pressure will also be in charge through the day Saturday,
leading to more warming sunshine. Highs on Saturday will be in the
upper 30s and low 40s, closer to seasonal normals. Sunday, high
pressure will begin to move out of the region, with a system
beginning to encroaching on the state from the SW. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the timing and coverage
of precip from this system as it nears Kentucky, where the GFS is
very gung- ho on widespread impacts, and the ECMWF slides the
entire system farther south away from the state, keeping us dry.
Therefore, stuck with the NBM solution, which brings low end pops
into the CWA by Sunday afternoon, increasing to better coverage
Sunday night into Monday. Expect this will shift as the model
solutions change and come into better agreement.
Sunday and Monday temps will be very similar to that of Saturday,
before a bit of a colder airmass moves in for Tuesday on the
backside of the system (also in correlation with the return of more
NWrly flow mentioned above). As such, expect the precip to start off
as a mix of rain and snow on Sunday, transitioning to all snow
Sunday night as temps fall into the mid and upper 20s...then back to
a mixture of rain and snow as the system exits Monday and temps rise
back into the upper 30s and low 40s. Again, given the low confidence
in the pattern set up, expect the temperatures and possible weather
types to change as we get closer as well - or possibly diminish all
together.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Last flurries and low clouds are slowly drying up along the VA/KY
border at TAF issuance. Clear skies were observed elsewhere. VFR
conditions are expected to persist through the period with passing
high clouds after 14z. Winds will be light to calm tonight, then
variable to southerly at less than 5kts on Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 1:06 AM EST---------------
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