JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 4:21 PM EST497
FXUS63 KJKL 202121
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
421 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Apparent temperatures (wind chills) will fall to below zero for
much of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning and again
from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
- Temperatures will gradually moderate back toward normal late
this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
The short term forecast discussion will follow shortly.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
Long wave troughing dominates across the central CONUS through
Thursday evening, before a transition to a split flow pattern
takes place this weekend and into early next week. Models have
remained in good agreement through the first half of the extended,
but then continue to be at odds with operational and ensemble
spread increasing quite a bit towards early next week.
The well below normal temperatures will roll on through Friday,
as the arctic air mass only gradually relents. As such, have
stayed closer to the 25th percentile for the daytime highs
Wednesday through Friday, which modify from the 20s on Wednesday,
to the lower and middle 30s on Friday. For overnight lows, have
maintained readings nearer or somewhat below the 5th percentile of
the blended guidance for valleys, given the lingering snowpack.
Single digits, with even a few particularly sheltered sites
getting down to near zero or slightly colder, will be possible
Thursday morning. These will modify to around 10 by Friday
morning, with an influx of clouds and a chance of very light
snow/flurries just before dawn Friday and continuing through the
day. This will occur in response to a passing upper level
disturbance. Time height shows fairly shallow moisture and weak
lift, so do not foresee anything impactful at this point.
More decisive return flow ensues this weekend and into early next
week, bringing readings back toward near normal temperatures
Saturday through Monday. Highs will rebound to the mainly the 40s,
while lows warm to the 20s and 30s. Better precipitation chances
will also move in Sunday and Monday; however, model spread
precludes going with likely PoPs just yet. Consequently,
precipitation-type details also remain low confidence, and will
await further model continuity before highlighting any meaningful
impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
Still some low clouds at the mid MVFR level around but these
should be clearing out through the rest of the afternoon with
clear skies expected by 00Z. Then high and mid level clouds will
rapidly increase after 03Z from the west and southwest ahead of
the next weak wave aloft. VFR conditions prevail until possibly
mid morning, Tuesday when some more MVFR CIGs will be possible.
Look for light west winds through the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 4:21 PM EST---------------
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