PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 3:12 AM CST430
FXUS63 KPAH 190912
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
312 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow will occur in some areas this morning especially
south of a Perryville Missouri to Evansville Indiana line. A
minor accumulation of dry snow is possible.
- It will remain very cold through Tuesday. Lows tonight will
be in the single digits, with wind chill temperatures from
zero to 10 below at times.
- Temperatures will slowly moderate through the week, with our
next chance of precipitation next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025
A long wave trof over the middle of the nation will slowly move
east over the next 48 hours. Early today, shortwave energy
within the trof will move across the region, resulting in some
light snow activity that may produce a minor accumulation
(mainly a dusting), especially south of a Perryville Missouri to
Evansville Indiana line. It should be a light dry snow, with
minimal or no impacts to travel anticipated. West KY is the most
likely area to see this play out, especially the KY Pennyrile
region.
We will maintain the Cold Weather Advisory for tonight for Wind
Chill temperatures from zero to -10, especially near and east of
the Mississippi River. We think at least a statement for the
cold is warranted over the rest of SEMO, given Wind Chill
temperatures are only a couple of degrees higher, (hard to
differentiate the effects of the cold and Advisory vs. no
Advisory with wind chills this low). But, gotta draw the line
somewhere.
The cold will hang around through Tuesday as a massive and
expansive high pressure system moves across much of the nation
especially from the Rockies to the East Coast. Temperatures will
moderate after that.
Multiple model solutions show a trof moving across the region
late Thursday into Thursday night, with light precipitation
possible. Model projections also suggest deep enough moisture
present for at least a chance of precipitation. Temperature
profiles offer a wintry aspect to the type should it happen.
For now, NBM PoPs are single digits with no suggestion yet of
this chance. We will monitor the trends for now given the
element of uncertainty.
The next bonafide chance of precipitation appears to be later in
the weekend when we should see a fundamental pattern shift, to
an evolving trof out west, and more of a southwest flow aloft
across our region with return flow established. A few more
aggressive model solutions seem to be driving the NBM PoP output.
So, overall confidence is still low that far out in time in
terms of how that will all play out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Guidance has trended less impactful with light snow to move
eastward across the region overnight into Sunday morning. We now
only have MVFR snow in TEMPO groups at KPAH and KOWB, along
with a prevailing flurry. North northwest winds will increase
through the night and morning and will gust 25-30kts over much
of the region through the day, before settling down to around
10kts sustained for the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for MOZ076-087-111-112.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to
noon CST /1 PM EST/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 3:12 AM CST---------------
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