LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 3:45 AM EST176
FXUS63 KLMK 170845
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light to moderate rain expected late tonight and Saturday
morning.
* Scattered light snow showers could produce minor fluffy
accumulations Saturday night through Sunday.
* Frigid temperatures are expected late in the weekend into the
middle of next week. Lows will be in the single digits, with wind
chills below 0 at times. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday
will only reach the teens to low 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
Today, surface high pressure sits over the Southeast while a cold
front lies in-between two surface lows (one just north of Lake
Superior and the other near the Texas Panhandle), and as this area
of low pressure pushes east towards the surface high, southern winds
over southern Indiana and central Kentucky will increase to around
10 mph with gusts reaching near 20 mph. With a mild upper ridge over
the Lower Ohio Valley, skies will remain sunny for most the day as
the warm air advection pushes high temperatures into the low to mid
40s along and north of Interstate 64 while temperatures warm to the
south, reaching the low to mid 50s along the Tennessee border.
Tonight, the southern jet will push the left exit region of an upper
jet over the CWA as a 50 knot low level jet, ahead of the cold
front, is also working across the region. This isentropically lifted
moisture will push precipitable water values to near 0.75" over the
forecast area. Model soundings show that as the deep layer moisture
begins to work over the area, some low level dry air will have to be
overcome before the better widespread rain moves from west to east
over the CWA beginning around 2-4z. Sounding profiles also keep this
all rain tonight with no P-type issues or instability to worry
about. Strong warm air advection remains with winds reaching 10-15
mph and gusts increasing to near 25 mph at times. Temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s for lows by 12z
Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
Saturday - Sunday...
Light rain is forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning. A southern
stream upper shortwave trough will be overhead, with a sfc cold
front draped NE to SW through southern IN and western KY. The cold
front will push through the forecast area through early afternoon,
with falling temperatures in its wake. Temperatures are forecast to
start the day in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and will fall through the
30s during the afternoon hours.
Lift and moisture depth decrease significantly by the afternoon and
early evening hours, but a brief changeover to light snow or
flurries is possible as precip diminishes. However, a better chance
for light snow showers exists later Saturday night into Sunday.
Deep upper level troughing begins to descend from Canada over the
central CONUS heading into Sunday. Another mid/upper level shortwave
trough rotates over the Lower OH Valley from the southwest Sunday
morning. Meanwhile, strong low-level CAA will be ongoing Sat night
into Sunday via NW flow. As a result, the shallow moisture present
will be cooled into the -10 to -20 C layer. Scattered snow showers
and flurries will be possible throughout much of this time period,
which may produce minor fluffy accumulations. Snowfall ratios are
forecast to increase to 15-20:1, so any QPF could yield a dusting.
It will be cold Sunday, and a 10 mph NW wind will keep wind chills
in the teens.
Sunday night - Thursday...
Conditions should dry out by early Monday morning. The mid-level
impulse embedded within the broader cyclonic flow aloft lifts off to
the northeast, and sfc high pressure builds in from the west. This
strong arctic high will bring even colder air into the region.
Expect frigid conditions early next week, with lows in the single
digits and highs in the teens to low 20s. Wind chills between -5 F
and +5 F look possible Monday morning, with a light NW wind
lingering with the center of the high still off to the west. Then,
wind chills will largely remain in the single digits or teens from
Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. Wind chills below 0 will
again be possible early Wednesday morning.
The arctic high shifts off to the east Wednesday into Thursday, and
southerly return flow advects warmer air into the region. Highs will
finally get back above freezing by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours or so before
the next wave of rain moves into the region. Currently, keeping an
eye on possible LLWS beginning around 00z Saturday. This will be
added to future TAFs if the signal remains. The current low level
cloud cover at SDF and LEX is expected to continue lifting and
will move east of the airfields over the never few hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 3:45 AM EST---------------
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