JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 3:50 PM EST003
FXUS63 KJKL 162050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures expected for Friday and Saturday but
below normal readings are expected for the next week. Apparent
temperatures are forecast near or below zero for much of the
area on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
- Rain will move into the area late Friday night and continue into
Saturday before transitioning to snow. Light snow accumulations
will be possible for portions of the area Saturday night
through Sunday evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
Abundant sunshine is pushing temperatures warmer than what was
forecast, and the max T forecast has been raised. Clouds will
eventually head back south into the area later this afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
A few flurries occurred this morning with warm air advection, but
they are tapering off and clearing is moving in at least for a
time. Have updated the forecast to reflect this. More clouds are
still expected to return this afternoon, but the prospect for
measurable precip looks slim, and the mention of measurable
precip in the forecast is now limited to the eastern tip of the
state this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS is rather quiet. A surface
low is tracking through central Canada with a trailing warm front
that's diving straight south, paralleling the Mississippi River.
Broad high pressure is centered over Texas and the CWA is largely
sandwiched between the two synoptic features. Locally, in the
Commonwealth, temperatures are starting to climb as southwesterly
winds are advecting warmer temperatures into the region. Western
Kentucky is in the mid-20s to low-30s. Here on the eastern side of
the state, we're still seeing lows in the mid-teens to low-20s. As
southerly flow increases, those temperatures will begin to climb on
our side of the state.
Through the day today, the upper-level trough and accompanying 90-
100 knot jetstreak will dive southeast toward the Commonwealth. Low-
level west to southwesterly flow will advect those warmer
temperatures but also due to a lack of an inversion, those winds
will mix down to the surface. As a result, breezy winds are expected
this afternoon. Also with the trough, increased chances of flurries
and isolated snow showers will be possible this afternoon into this
evening. Areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway will have the
best chances (10-20%) of seeing some snow. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected in the lower elevations but light
accumulations may be possible in the high terrain of Pike, Letcher
and Harlan counties. Once the system exits late tonight, surface
high pressure will return to the forecast area but low-level
southwesterly flow and cloud cover will keep overnight lows rather
moderate by only falling into the mid to upper-20s.
High pressure will linger into the day Friday with southwesterly
flow advecting warmer temperatures into the region. Highs for Friday
are expected to climb into the upper-40s for areas south of the KY-
80 corridor, mid-40s for areas between the KY-80 and I-64 corridors
and upper-30s for locations north of the I-64 corridor. While high
pressure will reign supreme over eastern Kentucky, to the west, a
surface low with a trailing cold front will approach the area. PoP
isn't expected in the short-term but the WAA effects ahead of the
front will impact temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
The big story for the extended portion of the forecast will be the
expected outbreak of brutally cold arctic air during the upcoming
work week. Initially, we will start off very warm, as southerly flow
associated with an eastward moving storm system keeps Gulf of Mexico
air flowing into the region. This scenario will change quickly,
however, Saturday night and Sunday, as a frigid ridge of arctic high
pressure pushes relentlessly southeastward into the central and
eastern portions of the country. In fact, most of the CONUS will be
overtaken by this new air mass. The various models are in good
agreement with regards to the arctic outbreak and the bitterly cold
temperatures it will bring. 850 hpa temperatures of around seven
below zero are showing up in the latest GFS soundings the by Tuesday
night. Another bit of good news is that while the temperatures are
in the 40s to end the week and heading into the weekend, and with
widespread rain also forecast Friday night and Saturday, any
remaining snow we have should be completely melted.
However, as the temperatures plummet Saturday night, rain will mix
with and eventually change over to snow, with nothing but snow
expected across our area from late Saturday evening through Sunday
evening. The model runs during the past few day shifts have yielded
persistent slight increases in QPF and snow fall across our area.
Today though, the GFS run dramatically increased snowfall totals
across eastern Kentucky, much more so than both the NAM and ECMWF
were showing. Therefore, decided to temper down both QPF and
snowfall amounts for now, until the models come into better
agreement. As it stands, it still appears that we will see light
snow accumulations across eastern Kentucky over the weekend, with
the highest amounts occurring in the higher terrain along the
Virginia border and just east from a line extending from Inez to
Hazard to Evarts. With persistent moist northwesterly flow expected
to set up behind the departed storm system, we could have enough
orographic lift present to allow some snow flurries to occur across
the area at times during the week, depending on how much lingering
cloud cover we have.
After seeing highs in the 40s on Saturday, a dramatic decrease in
temperatures will take place. Highs on Sunday will likely only be in
the 20s, as the arctic air first begins to move in. By Monday and
Tuesday, the arctic air mass will be firmly entrenched, especially
east of the Rocky Mountains. Highs on those two days may only rise
into the teens. Single digit lows will be highly likely Sunday night
through Tuesday night, with a few locations along and north of I-64
perhaps falling to zero or slightly below. Weather hazards to look
for will be bitterly cold temperatures during the week, along with
very cold wind chills, and any issues that arise from the snow we
see over the weekend, which will depend on how much snow we actually
receive.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies prevailed at the start of
the period. An MVFR cloud deck was beginning to make its way
into KY from IN and OH. These clouds are expected to advance south
through almost all of the JKL forecast area during the afternoon
and early evening. The ceilings are then expected to break up and
retreat to the northeast on Friday morning, leaving VFR conditions
through the end of the period.
Westerly winds gusting 20-25 kts this afternoon will die off
tonight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 3:50 PM EST---------------
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