ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:45 AM EST546
FXUS61 KILN 121145
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move away from the area today as a cold front
approaches. The cold front will move through the region tonight
into Monday morning. Bitterly cold air will then overspread the
area for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface ridge axis extending along the Appalachians will get
suppressed further south and east as a cold front approaches
from the west. considerable amount of cloud cover across the
area to start the day, but there will be at least some clearing
across the southern counties. Temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will push into the region after midnight and pass
off to the east of the area Monday morning. Low levels will
become saturated ahead of the front which combined with the lift
from the boundary may be sufficient to generate some light
precipitation. Precipitation type still remains in question as
guidance suggests that it will be borderline whether there are
ice crystals available for nucleation. This will determine
whether there would be light snow or drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Have continued to include a mix of those types as the front
moves through. Chance of measurable precipitation remains low.
After the front moves through, there will be some decrease in
clouds. Temperatures may continue to fall well into the morning
before making a very modest diurnal rise.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Meridional flow will be present across the CONUS to start the period
Monday night, with a ridge over the western United States and a
persistent trough over the east. Frigid air will be in place under
this trough, with temperatures ranging from the single digits Monday
night into the teens and lower 20s on Tuesday.
A weak, reinforcing shortwave will shift east into the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday within this cold pattern. Depending on model/member,
there could be a significant depth of our vertical atmosphere within
the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) - low confidence here due to the
range of solutions in the guidance. However, experience indicates it
doesn't take much moisture and lift to produce a light, powdery
snowfall in arctic air. Therefore, in coordination with neighboring
offices, have increased PoPs a bit into the chance category and have
allowed a light accumulation under an inch for now.
The heart of the cold air will be over the CWA behind this system
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low temperatures will likely reach a
few degrees below zero with highs in the teens to near 20 degrees in
the south.
After another progressive disturbance brings a chance of light snow
Wednesday night into Thursday, a major pattern shift appears to be
coming heading into the weekend as the western high-amplitude ridge
shifts east across the Ohio Valley to the East Coast. This will
likely bring moist southwest flow, "warmer" temperatures, and a more
significant chance for precipitation for Friday night and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
May still be some clouds about below 3 kft but expect that this
will not result in a ceiling. So VFR with mid clouds through
the first half of the period. South winds will increase to
between 10 and 15 kt. MVFR ceilings will spread in from west to
east after 23Z. These ceilings are forecast to drop to IFR,
except in the Columbus area. There could be a brief period of
light snow or drizzle/freezing drizzle, but probability is much
too low to include in the TAFs this far out in time. A cold
front will move through late in the period allowing ceilings to
return to MVFR and winds to shift to the west.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue into Monday. MVFR
ceilings are possible on Tuesday and then again on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:45 AM EST---------------
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