IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 1:02 AM EST912
FXUS63 KIWX 110602
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
102 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Outside of the lake effect snow belts, snow will gradually
taper off early this morning.
- Lake effect snow through Saturday morning brings an additional
1 to 2 inches of accumulation.
- Very cold early next week with below-zero wind chills and
additional chances for snow.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
Snow is moving out of the area early this morning. An upper-
level vort maximum is rotating through far northwest Indiana as
well. This feature has pockets of higher reflectivity and
visibility near 2 miles. This activity is isolated in nature.
The combination of the isolated nature and the gradually ending
of the synoptic snow has lead to the expiration of the winter
weather advisory for most of the area as scheduled. The
exception is Berrien, Cass, and St. Joseph counties in Michigan.
Lake effect snow is already prevalent on radar. Forecast
guidance indicates an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is
possible. In light of the existing headline, opted to extend to
10AM there and match my neighbors to the north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025
A deep cold trough continues to swing across the midwest this
afternoon. An area of light snow has moved across the area and
a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
evening. Although moisture is limited and total amounts will
generally only be in the 2 to 3 inch range, slick roads and
reduced visibilities will impact the evening commute. The snow
is expected to taper off from west to east this evening, but
light lake effect could continue through Saturday morning.
Saturday will generally be dry, but likely still at least partly
cloudy due to northwest flow pulling moisture off of Lake
Michigan which will become trapped under a high pressure
inversion. Another fast moving weather system will move in
Sunday with even less precipitation. Some light snow will be
possible, especially in the evening. light freezing drizzle will
also be possible given the shallow nature of the moisture and a
lack of higher level cloud ice crystals. However, with the low-
level flow shifting southerly, temperatures may warm a degree or
two above freezing.
Much colder weather will follow for the first half of next week
as an arctic closed low moves over the northern Great lakes. By
Tuesday, highs will only be in the teens, with wind chills near
to below zero. Periods of lake effect snow will also continue.
Temperatures will start to moderate towards the end of the week
under zonal flow aloft, but highs will struggle to reach into
the low 30s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
Snow will continue to taper off from west to east between
through about 06Z, with ceilings and visibilities gradually
improving overnight. Some residual lake effect snow showers are
expected downwind of Lake Michigan in southwest Lower Michigan
into the morning period. Also a few flurries today will be
possible at KSBN and KFWA, but no impacts expected and
confidence on exact timing/occurrence is low. Westerly winds up
to 10 kts through the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Brown
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 1:02 AM EST---------------
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