BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 10, 12:48 PM EST777
FXUS61 KBOX 101748
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather today with warmer temperatures and winds gradually
decreasing through the evening. A more significant storm passes well
to our south on Saturday leaving southern New England with just a
period of light snow showers expected through the day. Dry and
seasonable weather returns Sunday through Tuesday before
colder temperatures move back into the region late Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:45 AM Update:
Only minor updates needed to the current forecast. Winds have
been trending downward a little quicker than forecast. Made the
necessary adjustments to the winds/gusts. Expect a further
downward trend in winds this afternoon with light winds by
tonight.
Key Messages...
* Dry, warmer, and less windy today.
Today we'll finally transition away from the very cold, very windy
regime southern New England has been under for the past week. As mid
level ridging moves overhead the pressure gradient begins to slacken
allowing for diminishing winds through the day. So, while winds
won't be as gusty as in days past, we'll still see gusts 25-30 mph
especially through the early afternoon. By late afternoon and
evening those gusts diminish and we should finally have some light
and variable winds overnight. Temperatures will also be moderating
beneath the ridge with 925mb temps warming from -9C to -1C; this
allows for highs 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, in the
mid/upper 30s before dipping into the low 20s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Light snow through the day with minimal accumulations
The southern stream shortwave associated with the ongoing winter
storm over the southeast fails to fully phase with the northern
stream energy early Saturday. This means that while the stronger
storm remains well to our south, the weaker and more moisture
starved system will cause a period of light, widespread snowfall
over much of SNE. Given the lack of deep moisture (PWATS<0.4") and
strong forcing (BUFKIT soundings indicate little omega in the DGZ)
this should be a light snowfall, amounting to 0.5-1" for most over
the course of Saturday, with up to 2 inches possible especially in
northeast MA. Most locations should see the bulk of this in the
morning, while hi-res guidance indicates that for eastern MA the
stream of moisture pivots overhead during the afternoon so snow
showers may linger into the evening, especially for northeast MA and
Cape Cod.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points
* Mainly dry, less windy, and seasonable temperatures Sunday and
Monday
* Cold front brings back cooler temperatures and some gusty winds
Tuesday through Thursday, but not nearly as strong as this past week.
Sunday and Monday
High pressure builds in from the south Sunday into Monday. Dry
weather, calm winds, and seasonable temperatures will prevail, with
highs in the mid to upper 30s, possibly even near 40F on both days.
Tuesday through Thursday
Weak shortwave and dry cold front drops southeast from the Great
Lakes on Tuesday. Winds will likely increase again, but they do not
look as strong as we saw this past week, with gusts only around 15-
20mph. High temps will trend cooler starting Tuesday with highs near
30F, then dropping into the mid to upper 20s for Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds may turn more northerly on Wednesday and Thursday,
which could allow for some weak ocean-effect snow showers across the
outer Cape and Islands. Otherwise, the rest of the region remains
dry, with too little moisture around to bring snow with the
shortwave and cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today: High Confidence
VFR conditions this afternoon. NW winds at 8-13 kts with gusts
20-25 kts with gusts diminishing by 00z.
Tonight: High Confidence
VFR with light and variable winds under 8 kts.
Saturday: Moderate Confidence (Timing)
Area of light snow showers spreads across the region from west
to east between 09-12z. This will bring a period of lowered
ceilings and visibilities, mainly in the MVFR category with
brief IFR possible for the morning timeframe. Accumulations
expected to be light. Main batch of snow moves out by the
afternoon with scattered snow showers possible through the
evening hours. Ceilings gradually improve Saturday evening. Light
NW winds at 5-10 knots, increasing to 10-15 knots in the
evening.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today... High confidence.
NW wind gust 20-30 kts. Seas 3-6 ft. Winds and seas diminishing
through the day.
Tonight... High confidence.
Light NW winds becoming SW. Seas 2-4 ft decreasing to 1-3 ft.
Saturday... High confidence.
Seas 1-3 ft. Winds becoming N 5-10 kt.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of snow.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ254-
255.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW/Mensch
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/Mensch/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 10, 12:48 PM EST----------------
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