ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 1:13 PM EST181
FXUS61 KILN 111813
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, and
then it will pass off to the east on Sunday. A cold front will
move through Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
It appears that the last area of scattered snow showers will
pass through mainly our eastern forecast area over the next
couple of hours. After that, it looks like breaks will develop
in the clouds during the afternoon, except for perhaps central
Ohio.
Highs will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface ridge axis will translate across the region tonight
with southerly flow returning on the back side. This will allow
lower clouds to come back into the area filling in any breaks
that developed during the day. Additional clouds will spread in
from the west on Sunday ahead of a short wave and cold front
that will be approaching the region.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper teens. Highs will rise
into the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Sunday night into Monday, a clipper system will move
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The moisture will be
rather shallow per model soundings, with depths to near or just
below the level required to produce snowflakes. While PoPs are
low with the paltry forcing involved, have included a slight
chance of flurries or freezing drizzle Sunday night due to the
vertical temp profile and low-end PoP.
Arctic air filters in behind the front on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will likely only reach into the teens
during the day with lows falling into the single digits at
night. Radiational cooling conditions won't be ideal; however a
5-10 mph breeze could get our wind chills close to the Cold
Weather Advisory threshold. Will keep a mention of this in the
HWO product, with Tuesday night being the coldest night (temps
near or just below zero).
Modest warm air advection commences Thursday into Friday as
heights rise to our west and zonal flow picks up ahead of a
developing short wave over the northern plains and upper
Midwest. Most of our CWA could see a return to slightly above
freezing temperatures by the end of the period on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 23Z, a surface ridge of high pressure will build east
into the middle Ohio Valley. West winds of 8 to 12 knots will
locally gust to 20 knots, especially north of the Ohio River.
Ceilings will become SCT to LCL BKN, with heights between 1500
and 2500 feet. Winds will back to the southwest and diminish
toward 23Z.
For tonight, it will be a tricky ceiling and visibility
forecast. Partial clearing early on, timed with the surface
ridge axis moving east (light to calm winds), may lead to some
transitory patchy fog. Not confident enough yet to put a period
of fog in the terminals, but it will be something to
watch/consider with later forecasts. Cloud coverage should range
between SCT to LCL BKN with cloud heights again between 1500 to
2500 feet. Winds will become southerly later in the night
between 4 and 8 knots.
On Sunday, the surface ridge will move east. Meanwhile, low
pressure will track northeast into the western Great Lakes. A
trailing cold front will eventually make inroads into the
forecast area after 00Z Monday. In the meantime, southerly flow
will be in place with sustained winds ranging from 8 to 12 knots
with some gustiness possible near the KDAY terminal. KDAY
should remain in MVFR ceilings, while other locations see clouds
lift some to around 4000 feet with diurnal mixing.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Sunday night. MVFR
ceilings to linger into Monday. MVFR ceilings possible at times
Monday night through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 1:13 PM EST---------------
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