MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 5:46 AM CST ...New AVIATION...050
FXUS64 KMOB 081146
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
MVFR ceilings over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama will will improve to VFR from north to south throughout
the morning as the low cloud deck gradually erodes. Winds will
remain from the north between 5 and 10 knots. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local
area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system
slowly pushes southeastward. Even under mostly sunny skies during
the afternoons, highs for today will only top out in 40s, and
highs for tomorrow and Thursday will be in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows for both tonight and Wednesday night will plummet into
the 20s areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect
through 9 am this morning across the entire area for apparent
temperatures (wind chills) in the 15 to 20 degree range. Another
advisory will likely be needed for tonight for similar wind chill
values. /96 /22
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
A weak ridge will move eastward Thursday night, as a potent trough
swings into the Plains. Southwest flow aloft will help to filter
in moisture, while several shortwaves round the based of the
trough. Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will occur off the
southeast Texas Coast and this low will slide along the coast
through the first part of the short term period. Rain chances will
increase from west to east late Thursday night and continue
through much of the day on Friday. There remains considerable
uncertainty with regard to the type of precipitation expected, at
least initially. Temperatures Thursday evening will fall into the
mid to upper 30s prior to the onset of precip and increasing WAA
as the surface lows moves closer to the area. Drier air in the
lower levels will increase the potential for surface temperatures
to fall to near freezing just as the precip begins to move into
the area. This will set the stage for a brief period of
snow/sleet, generally across areas north of US 84. WAA will
quickly warm the vertical column early Friday morning, and any
wintry precip will transition to all rain before any accumulations
or impacts occur. One thing to keep in mind is that just a 1 to 2
degree difference in temperature could change the precipitation
type, so this is something we'll continue to monitor. Trends have
been in our favor keeping all wintry precip accumulations north of
our area, but still, something to check back on.
Rain will continue across the entire area through much of the day
Friday, with highs warming into the lower 40s across the north to
60s along the coast. Rain chances will come to an end Friday night
as the surface low moves east of the area. The trough will swing
through the region on Saturday, with flow aloft becoming
northwesterly. This will keep dry and cold conditions in place
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday only warming into the
40s and overnight lows falling into the 20s. Sunday will be a
little warmer, though temps will struggle to warm into the lower
50s. Similar conditions are anticipated for the start of the new
work week, with highs into the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.
/73
MARINE...
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025
Moderate northerly flow will continue through Wednesday night.
Winds will shift to easterly by Thursday night. By Friday, a storm
system will pass along the Gulf Coast bringing a strong onshore
flow and building seas to the marine zones. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely become necessary from the Friday through Saturday
morning timeframe. Winds quickly return back to an offshore flow
by the weekend in the wake of a cold front. /96 /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 49 26 51 38 60 32 48 29 / 0 0 0 60 100 50 0 0
Pensacola 49 29 51 42 64 36 48 32 / 0 0 0 20 90 70 0 0
Destin 52 32 53 43 65 40 51 35 / 0 0 0 10 80 80 10 0
Evergreen 47 22 49 32 51 31 46 24 / 0 0 0 40 100 70 0 0
Waynesboro 46 21 48 32 43 29 46 23 / 0 0 0 80 100 20 0 0
Camden 44 20 46 31 43 29 43 21 / 0 0 0 60 100 60 0 0
Crestview 50 23 51 34 61 35 48 26 / 0 0 0 20 80 80 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 5:46 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
