LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:32 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...030
FXUS63 KLMK 122332
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight, which
could produce some flurries. No accumulations are expected.
* There is a chance for minor snow accumulations on Tuesday. Snow
amounts are expected to be less than 1 inch.
* Very cold temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in
the single digits and teens. Wednesday morning could feature
temperatures near zero in some locations.
* Milder temperatures Friday, with widespread rain Friday night
into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
Mid-level clouds are streaming across the northern half of the
forecast area this afternoon, though there are still plenty of
breaks in the cloud deck. With the sfc high located over the
southeastern US, 925-850mb WAA regime has helped temperatures get
above freezing. Temperatures have reached the low 40s, with the
Bluegrass region still holding onto upper 30s this afternoon.
A sfc low is located over Wisconsin today, which is being driven by
a large upper low over the southern Manitoba/Ontario border. A
trailing cold front is extending into the Ozarks, which will be
pushing eastward tonight and into the Ohio Valley. Clouds will be on
the increase this evening ahead of the boundary, but this boundary
will be lacking any substantial moisture. Model soundings show a
shallow saturated layer, with not much confidence in getting enough
moisture up into the DGZ. Hi-res CAMs continue to show a few radar
blips possible, so will continue to advertise some flurries late
tonight. Best chance to see any flurries will be between 06-11z
tomorrow morning, and mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor
where the mid-level forcing will be more favorable.
Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy night as the front passes through.
The front should be pushing east of I-65 by 12z tomorrow, with a
strong CAA regime following in the wake. This timing will support
colder morning lows west of I-65, possibly seeing some upper teens
in southwestern Indiana. Areas to the east will remain in the weak
WAA pre-frontal regime through much of the night, so their lows may
remain in the upper 20s. Guidance has been hinting at maybe some
patchy fog in our east, which may be possible given the low level
moisture and snowpack, but confidence is not high. Best chances for
any patchy fog will be east of I-75.
For tomorrow, CAA remains in place for tomorrow, resulting in our
highs to be back in the upper 20s and low 30s. Clouds will gradually
be clearing through the afternoon as another sfc high pressure
builds across the Ozarks. Dry weather is in store for tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
Monday Night - Wednesday Night...
The beginning of the medium range forecast continues to look frigid
with an arctic airmass in place. High pressure is forecast to settle
over the ArkLaTex Monday night, while a sharp upper shortwave swings
southeast over Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes. Central KY and
southern IN will see partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, with a
light westerly wind. Temperatures will tumble through the teens, and
some upper single digits will be possible by early Tuesday morning.
The mid-level shortwave trough passes over the eastern Great Lakes
on Tuesday, and a sfc cold front will push through the Ohio Valley.
Model guidance remains split on measurable precip, but there may be
just enough moisture for this wave to squeeze out a couple
hundredths of an inch. A light dusting of fluffy snow will be
possible Tuesday across southern IN and north-central KY. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 20s north of I-64 to the mid 30s along
the TN border.
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the coldest period as a 1036 mb
sfc high settles over the Lower Ohio Valley. Lows in the single
digits are likely across southern IN and the northern half of KY.
Lows down in the lower teens are possible across southern KY.
Temperatures recover into the 20s by Wednesday afternoon. Light
southerly flow develops by Wednesday night, but it will still be
very cold with lows in the single digits and teens.
Thursday - Saturday...
Notably warmer air will advect into the region Thursday and Friday.
A potent low pressure system is forecast to track east across
southern Canada, while a southern stream wave deepens over the
southern Plains. Strengthening W/SW flow ahead of upper shortwave
energy and a synoptic cold front will produce WAA and a deeper
supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread moderate
rain looks possible Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures are
forecast to warm into the 40s Friday and Saturday, before falling
back below freezing Saturday night. Cannot rule out snow on the
backside of this system for the second half of the weekend, but
forecast confidence is low on the accumulation potential. Confidence
is higher in cold air again surging into the region behind the cold
front Sunday, so the warmth at the end of this week will be short-
lived.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
Impacts/Confidence:
- Medium confidence in MVFR ceilings tonight at RGA and LEX with low
confidence elsewhere.
Discussion...Cold front will sweep through the area tonight with
potentially MVFR ceilings at some terminals. Surface observations
locate the frontal boundary draped from central IL to northern IN,
with a narrow pre-frontal band of clouds now expanding into southern
IL and western KY. For tonight, weather will remain mostly
precipitation free although models are hinting at a mix of flurries
and/or freezing drizzle, but probabilities are too low (less than
10%) and upstream observations continue dry. Also, probabilities of
MVFR/IFR ceilings have decreased substantially and best chances are
for RGA and LEX. Satellite imagery and surface observations
corroborate this trend as the observed MVFR ceilings are confined to
a smaller area below the building narrow band. Lastly, winds will
shift from the southwest to the west-northwest behind the front.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...ALL
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:32 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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