BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 11:59 PM EST054
FXUS61 KBOX 100459
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1159 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather for Friday with warmer temperatures and winds
gradually decreasing through the evening. There will be no
significant storm on Saturday as low pressure will pass well
south of the region with just a period of light snow showers
expected. Dry and seasonable weather returns Sunday through
Tuesday before colder temperatures move back into the region
late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Winds across the region continue to drop below advisory
threshold, therefore, have allowed the wind advisory to expire
early. NW gusts of 30-40mph remain possible through the night.
Otherwise no major changes made to the forecast.
645 pm update...
satellite and radar data showing the clouds and flurries/light
snow from a few hours earlier are rapidly melting away. Thus
have zeroed out the PoPs. Should be generally clear, with NW
winds remaining gusty overnight but slowly diminishing. Wind
chill values will be in the 0 to 15F range, nothing extremely
out of the ordinary for this time of year, but still cold.
Previous discussion...
Radar late this afternoon shows a narrow snowband vertically
oriented across Worcester County. This will bring localized
light snow with a dusting. Over the next few hours this will
diminish.
Tonight, expect dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover. Winds
will remain elevated overnight out of the NW; however, gradually
decreasing from the higher gusts observed during the day. Gusts 30-
35 mph. Temperatures drop into the mid teens to mid 20s; however,
the wind will make it feel like it is in the upper single digits to
low teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Warmer with gradually decreasing winds
Friday:
A mid-level ridge moves across southern New England supporting dry
conditions. 850mb temperatures warm 3-7 degrees from Thursday
resulting in warmer high temperatures. Highs range in the mid to
upper 30s with a few 40s in spots. Winds continue to decrease
Friday as the low level jet exits the region and the pressure
gradient relaxes. It will be a gradual decreasing trend. so it will
likely be breezy in the morning with gusts 25-35 mph. Winds diminish
further in the afternoon and early evening.
Friday Night:
Mainly quiet evening with increasing clouds as our next system moves
approaches. A piece of energy from a northern branch trough will
move across the northeast Saturday bringing light snow showers. Snow
chances will begin increasing from west to east around sunrise.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Light snow Saturday - minimal accumulations
* Another period of below normal temperatures mid-week
No big changes with the 12z model suite, so that gives us a bit more
clarity for Saturday. In a nutshell, a mid/upper level shortwave
will be the weather maker, however it does not have a lot of energy
with it, and even less moisture. Given a dry antecedent airmass
(precip water values only about 0.25"), the liquid equivalent
precip is going to be minimal. Model averages are generally less
than 0.10" across the region, and even less than 0.05". Snow-
liquid ratios look to be a bit more on the higher side, probably
14-17:1 given a colder airmass. Not seeing a lot of
omega/upward motion in the snow growth layer via BUFKIT
profiles, so this would suggest we will not see any bursts of
heavy snow. Looks to be a few hours of generally light snow.
Doing the math (QPF x SLR), that suggests snow accumulations
will generally be under 1"...and for many areas less than 1/2".
I will note that there is a small signal in some models that we
may see just over 0.10" liquid across far NE MA. If that comes
to pass, that area would have the highest chances of seeing over
1" of snow. Given overall uncertainty in QPF and SLR, the
maximum reasonable amount of snow looks to be 2" for most of the
region. The stronger surface low center that had people's
attention earlier this week will pass far to our south to likely
not be a player, but there is a small chance that it's close
enough to spread a little more QPF up to Martha's Vineyard and
Nantucket. If that were to happen, then perhaps a 3" amount
could occur there. However that is an unlikely scenario.
After the Saturday system pushes east of the area, we should have a
couple of relatively quiet days as a weak ridge of high pressure
comes over the region. So no real wind. Seasonable temperatures too.
Next weather feature will be late Tuesday as a dry cold front pushes
across the region. This will usher in colder than normal
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Will probably be breezy
once again, but not nearly like the last few days. Some suggestion
that there will be some low level instability Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as the colder air moves over the ocean which would
mean some ocean effect flurries/snow showers could develop and bring
a little light snow to parts of the Cape. Stuck with a model blend
and have 20-30% PoPs for the Cape. But this is so far out, these
kinds of details are going to change.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z update:
Today: High Confidence
VFR, decreasing winds today, becoming light NW by evening.
Tonight: High Confidence
VFR with light and variable winds under 5 knots
Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence
MVFR/IFR. Area of light snow showers spreads across the region
from west to east during the day. Although accumulation will be
light, there could be visibility reductions with snow. Light NW
winds at 5-10 knots, increasing to 10-15 knots in the evening.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR today and tonight with decreasing winds
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR today and tonight with decreasing winds
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: MVFR and IFR. Light snow.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Key Messages:
* Gale Warnings continue through this evening.
* Light freezing spray possible across all waters.
Tonight... High confidence.
Strongest winds will subside and overnight expect NW winds 15 to 25
knots and gusts to 30 knots. Gale warnings will likely be converted
to Small Craft Advisories. Seas begin to lower, near shore are 3 to
5 feet and offshore are 5 to 8 feet. Light freezing spray possible.
Friday... High confidence.
NW wind gust 20-30 kts. Seas 3-6 ft. Winds and seas diminishing
through the day.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Mensch/Nash
NEAR TERM...Mensch/KP/Nash
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Mensch/Nash
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 9, 11:59 PM EST----------------
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