LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 11:01 AM EST213
FXUS63 KLMK 121601
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1101 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Above freezing temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid
30s to near 40 degrees.
* There is a chance for minor snow accumulations on Tuesday. Snow
amounts are expected to be less than 1 inch.
* Very cold temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in
the single digits. Wednesday morning could feature temperatures
near zero in some locations.
* Milder temperatures Friday, with widespread rain Friday night
into Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
It is a quiet morning with blue sky finally making a return over the
area. Temps across the region are right around the freezing mark,
but the forecast is still on track to reach the upper 30s by this
afternoon. Clouds will be mainly streaming across southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky today. Sfc high pressure is located over the
southeastern US, which does place us in a light southerly flow. The
forecast for today remains in good shape, and no major changes are
planned at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
Sfc high pressure will be centered over the southeastern US today as
a sfc low, currently over the Upper Midwest, slowly works across the
northern Great Lakes later today and tonight. This system will drag
a strong sfc cold front out of the Mid Mississippi Valley and into
the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow. This will result in a tighter
pressure gradient over the area today increasing southwesterly flow
over central KY and southern IN. The low-level southwest flow will
increase warm air advection helping to boost temperatures to above
freezing. Highs will top out into the mid/upper 30s this afternoon.
Model guidance wants to have a few locations top out near 40 but
given the current snowpack on the ground, especially across north
central KY and southern IN, decided to knock a few degrees off the
highs. Either way, it will be a nice break from the cold and snow
the last week. Skies will vary from north to south as we expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies for north central KY and southern IN
with more sunshine further south.
As the cold front approaches from the west, clouds will be on the
increase from the west to the east during the evening. There is
little moisture ahead of this boundary, and PoP chances continue to
be relatively low. Model soundings do show a shallow saturated
layer, well below the DGZ. Decided to continue a trend of mentioning
the possibility of flurries or sprinkles and maybe a brief period of
drizzle as the upper wave works across the CWA. Little to no
accumulation or impacts are expected. Temperatures will fall from
the low/mid 30s and stay pretty steady until early morning when cold
air associated with the front work in across southern IN dropping
temperatures into the mid 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
Monday - Monday Night...
Progressive pattern to start the week with a series of disturbances
rounding the base of an upper trof across the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada. The lead disturbance on Monday will be too moisture-
starved to generate more than a few flurries, and the main sensible
wx impact will be steady or slowly falling temps through the day
under a cold advection regime. Look for readings dropping well into
the teens Monday night, with cloud cover and a somewhat mixy
boundary layer keeping temps from bottoming out.
Tuesday - Wednesday Night...
Another sharper upper shortwave will pinwheel through the Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with stronger forcing to squeeze out the still-
limited moisture. NBM precip chances are below mentionable levels,
but there is decent agreement on a few hundredths of an inch of QPF.
Will carry a 20-30% POP for what could be some fluffy, overachieving
snow, especially across the Bluegrass region Tuesday afternoon.
Accumulations still look to be less than 1 inch, limited by low QPF
and that it's occurring during daylight when it is difficult to
accumulate snow at this latitude. Temps will be stuck in the 20s, so
any snow that does fall could be impactful on untreated surfaces.
Tue night/Wed looks to be the coldest period as a 1035mb sfc high
settles over Kentucky just before dawn Wednesday. Should be enough
clearing, possibly accompanied by a freshened snowpack, that
widespread single digit temps are likely. A few locations could dip
just below zero. Even with more sun than clouds, Wednesday highs
will struggle into the 20s, with a quick drop through the teens
Wednesday evening before warm advection develops.
Thursday - Saturday...
Moderating trend begins on Thursday under weak warm advection, and
finally legit return flow by Friday. Temps near or above normal at
the end of the week under a nearly zonal pattern aloft and sfc high
pressure over the southeast CONUS. Widespread rain will develop
Friday night and continue into Saturday as a wave scoots across the
Great Lakes and drags a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Just enough
phasing with the southern stream to tap into Gulf moisture, and
temps warm enough to keep the precip as all rain, albeit a chilly
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
This morning, outside of some MVFR visibility for BWG, we have seen
most of the low stratus clear out and provide VFR flight categories.
BWG will improve by mid morning and expect most places to be VFR for
most of the day. Models have become more aggressive bringing low
clouds and CIGs to HNB and even SDF by late afternoon. Confidence is
not very high for this solution given the current upstream
conditions.
Current satellite imagery does show low stratus associated with an
approaching cold front stretching from Lake Michigan back through
MO. This is expected to arrive this evening from the west to the
east. We will see increasing clouds and CIG lowering as we go
overnight.
Winds will be out of the southwest around 10kts today then shift and
become W-WNW as the front moves through. While no precipitation is
anticipated, some light flurries or sprinkles are possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 11:01 AM EST---------------
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