BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 10:04 AM EST636
FXUS61 KBOX 061504
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1004 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and less windy today before another dry, cold frontal passage
brings gusty winds to the region for Tuesday. Cold temperatures, blustery
northwest winds and dry weather will prevail for much of this
week. High temperatures may run some 10 degrees below normal,
and be accompanied by below zero wind chills for some during the
midweek. Our next chance for precipitation may not appear until
this weekend, but uncertainty remains quite large.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update: 10 AM
The best way to describe today are cloudy and cold. Snow lovers
are likely aching to see the robust system passing through the
mid-Atlantic states. Here in southern New England we find very
minor returns on radar, but there is a good amount of dry air
which is eating away at the snow, through a process called
sublimation. The RAP does attempts to saturate the column, but
still comes up short, at best a few snow flakes are possible
late morning into early afternoon for the immediate south coast.
In general, the forecast remains in good shape, for more details
you can read the previous forecast discussion below...
----------------------------------------------------------------
Shortwave through and low-pressure system exit the Ohio River
Valley today, but high pressure and dry air to the north will
keep the region dry and all the precipitation well to the south.
The pressure gradient has finally relaxed, allowing the gusty
NW winds from over the weekend to subside. With minimal change
in airmass, high temperatures today will stay in the low 20s in
the high terrain to upper 20s and low 30s elsewhere. Skies today
will be mostly cloudy as thick layers of high cirrus clouds
move overhead due to the passing storm system to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Cold front moves through Monday night ahead a weakening northern
stream trough. Winds begin picking up from the NNW, gusting 15-25mph
overnight. Skies begin to clear overnight with drier air moving in
with the cold front. Given the gusty winds, far from ideal
radiational cooling conditions will occur overnight, but CAA and
850mb temps dropping from -8C to -12C will allow overnight temps to
fall into the single digits to mid-teens. The feels like temperature
will be near 0 F across much of the region by daybreak.
Cold and very windy again on Tuesday as the pressure gradient
tightens again behind the cold front. Winds at the top of the
boundary layer will once again be around 50mph, with mixing up to
850mb. NNW wind gusts of 25-35mph are likely again across the
region, with 35-45mph gusts possible in the high terrain and near
the coastal waters. High temps recover into the mid to upper 20s,
but the strong winds will bring the feel-like temperature down into
the single digits to mid-teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Below normal temperatures accompanied with gusty NW winds through
Thursday
* Temperatures modify closer to normal by Friday
* Unsettled weather possible this weekend, but uncertainty remains
large
Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern through mid-week.
Still dealing with a powerful low pressure over the Maritimes and
and high pressure over the central USA. This will set the stage for
a prolonged period of cold weather. Gusty NW winds up to 25-40 mph
during the daylight hours continue. It will not take much more
mixing where a Wind Advisory may be needed for the higher terrain
Wednesday.
These winds should not be strong enough where we will need to
consider cold weather headlines just yet, but this will need to be
monitored. That said, minimum wind chills in the single digits above
zero towards the coastal plain, and single digits below zero across
the higher terrain both Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be
plenty cold enough for most. The airmass start to modify towards
Friday, leading to near normal temperatures into this weekend.
Not seeing much opportunity for meaningful precipitation during this
portion of the forecast. The general W to NW flow should drive any
potential ocean-effect mainly offshore over the coastal waters. The
next chance for precipitation may come late this weekend. There
remains a large amount of uncertainty concerning the details. There
are a lot of moving parts, that must come together in just the right
way, to produce a significant impact on southern New England. Thus
far, the guidance has depicted many possible solutions, in some
cases from one run the next. This is a sign it is way too early to
get focused on a singular answer. We still need to remain alert to
the possibilities for now. It will likely be several days before
these details come into better focus. For now, stayed close to the
NationalBlend solution, as that is ensemble-based.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Monday... High confidence.
VFR. Winds turn more northerly, but not gusty as over the
weekend. Area of MVFR in the CT river valley should dissipate
with day break.
Monday Night... High confidence.
VFR. Far outer Cape and Nantucket could see periods of MVFR due
to ocean effect cumulus forming. Winds remain NNW and become
gusty again around 15-25 knots.
Tuesday... High Confidence
VFR with very gusty NNW winds of 30-40 knots, possibly higher
in the high terrain and over the waters.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. with WNW winds turning more northerly overnight. Less
gusty winds Monday, but gusts ramp back up for Tuesday
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR with periods of MVFR this morning. Light northerly winds
tonight and Monday. Very windy again Tuesday.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today: High Confidence
More tranquil boating conditions today as winds drop below
small craft criteria, out of the NNW at 10-15 knots. Seas in the
open waters drop below 5ft this afternoon.
Tonight: High Confidence
A cold front will move over the water late tonight, and winds will
increase to 20-25 knots after midnight. With the gale watch going
into effect starting at 7 am Tuesday, wont issue a small craft
advisory for this period.
Tuesday: Moderate Confidence
Gale Watch remains in effect Tuesday. NNW winds around 34 knots
remain possible on Tuesday, but confidence was not high enough to
upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning at this time. Even if a
Gale Warning isn't issued with future updates, high-end small
craft conditions can be expected, especially with seas
increasing to 5-10 feet.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft. Freezing spray likely.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Freezing spray likely.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft. Freezing spray likely.
Thursday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...Dooley/KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 10:04 AM EST----------------
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