ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 3:12 AM EST355
FXUS61 KILN 080812
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
312 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic air mass remains in place across the Ohio Valley, with
the coldest temperatures expected before the weekend. A southern
tracking low pressure system will bring additional snow
accumulation to the region Friday into Saturday. Temperatures
trend a few degrees milder through the weekend before another
surge of colder air leads to a drop in temperatures next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Blanket of clouds overspread the ILN fa this morning. Some
minor breaks are possible throughout the day, but mostly cloudy
skies persist. Continue to expect periodic flurries throughout
the day. Most of the snowfall today will not lead to any
accumulation, but hi-res models continue to show a band of snow
developing near portions of central/west-central OH later this
afternoon/evening. If this lines up in our counties, a few
tenths of an inch could accumulate.
Daytime highs remain well below normal, with locations observing
highs in the lower to middle 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Snowfall will taper off later this evening, with perhaps some
flurries lingering in portions of central OH a bit longer
tonight.
An important feature to highlight for tonight will be the
potential for near or below zero air temperatures developing,
especially near the Tristate. Models and bufkit soundings
show a fairly consistent signal with clearing out these lower
stratus clouds for portions of our southwestern counties. Where
this occurs, radiational cooling will become enhanced given the
light surface winds and snowpack. The HRRR/Euro are great at
showing this potential near the Tristate. Thus, continued to
trend temperatures well below NBM and MOS guidance. Given that
more locations may observe air temperatures near or below zero
degrees, even a light surface wind could result in 'feels like'
temperatures between -5 to -10 degrees at times. This may
warrant the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory, especially for
our southern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be shifting off to the east through
Thursday night. With the snow pack still in place and light winds,
temperatures will drop off quickly in areas that remain clear.
However, clouds will be on the increase from the west through the
night ahead of the next system and this will allow for temperatures
to eventually level out or even rise some. For now, will range
lows from near zero in the far east to around 10 in the far west but
this will be dependent on the exact timing of the clouds.
An upper level trough will move out of the Mississippi Valley
and across the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Some
embedded southern stream energy will lift northeast toward our area
and this will lead to an increasing chance for snow from the
southwest during the day on Friday, with widespread snow expected by
later Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The snow will then
taper off from the west later Friday night. Some accumulating snow
can be expected with amounts generally in the 1 to 3 inch range.
Temperatures will remain below normal with highs on Friday in the
mid to upper 20s.
Mid level ridging will push east across the Ohio Valley Saturday
into Sunday, leading to mainly dry conditions. Highs on Saturday
will again be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Sunday in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. A mid level short wave will push east across
the region early next week, bringing a chance of snow Sunday night
into Monday and a reinforcing shot of colder air by Tuesday. Highs
on Monday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, cooling to highs
in the upper teens to mid 20s for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGs continue to bounce around 2500-3500 ft AGL. For simplicity,
just kept an MVFR mention for the taf sites through the mid-
morning hours. Model soundings suggest these CIGs will lift to
>3000 ft for majority of these terminals by mid to late morning.
KCMH/KLCK have better chances for MVFR CIGs persisting through
most (if not all) of the taf period.
Periods of light snow will become possible by this afternoon,
mainly for KCMH/KLCK. There could be light accumulations this
evening, but the snow band may remain just north of the
terminals, leaving central OH with just some flurries. Still
kept in a mention given the potential.
Winds remain out of the WNW below 10 kts through the taf
period.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR ceilings are likely to continue into Wednesday afternoon,
possibly lingering into Wednesday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings
and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 3:12 AM EST---------------
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