ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 12:31 AM EST582
FXUS61 KILN 070531
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1231 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of the storm system, a bitterly cold airmass will
remain in place. Below normal temperatures are expected through
this week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times. A
system moving through the area Friday into Saturday will bring
additional chances for light snow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Flurries occurring across the region will shift eastward
tonight. Clearing will work into the area from the northwest,
but it will be transient. However, clearing will last long
enough to allow temperatures to fall into the single digits to
mid teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the day Tuesday, but
there are some indications for very light snow showers or
scattered flurries Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
Certainly the activity should be light/patchy in nature, but
suppose a dusting of new snow cannot be ruled out in a few spots
by Wednesday morning.
Other than the flurries/very light snow shower potential Tuesday
evening/night, the cold is going to be the main concern as temps
will only top out in the mid/upper 20s before dipping right back
into the single digits and lower/mid teens Tuesday night. The
coldest temps on Tuesday night should generally be near/W of
I-75 where some late night clearing may support better
radiational cooling conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will continue through the extended period.
On Wednesday, a reinforcing disturbance in the northwesterly flow
will spur a chance of snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan... so
across our northern counties. Surface high pressure will build
across the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. This will offer the best
chance of decreasing cloudiness. This could lead to nearly ideal
radiational cooling conditions Thursday night with mostly clear
skies, light winds, and significant snow cover. While the current
grids have Thursday night lows in the single digits, our sheltered
areas may drop to the single digits below zero.
The next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes late Friday into
Friday night. Light snow is likely, and we can't rule out light
accums as well.
Temperatures will become a little less frigid to close the period
this weekend into early next week as high temperatures may approach
the freezing mark by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still anticipating MVFR clouds to break up through the middle of
the night before another MVFR deck builds back in from the north
later this morning. Expecting this next deck of MVFR CIGs to
linger throughout the day Tuesday and perhaps into Tuesday night
as well. Some pockets of <2000ft AGL CIGs may pass through, but
anticipating most of this clouds to remain over 2000 ft.
Models show the potential for a brief period of vsby reductions
due to BR around 12z this morning. Kept a mention in for
KCVG/KLUK, but included KILN in this as well.
Not expecting any precip through the daytime hours, but some
flurries may pass through Tuesday night. Winds will decrease to
around 5-10 kts and persist out of the NW through the taf
period.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR ceilings are likely to continue into Wednesday, possibly
lingering into Wednesday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 12:31 AM EST---------------
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