PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 1:22 AM EST968
FXUS61 KPBZ 070622
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
122 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible overnight,
especially in the I-80 corridor and the ridges. Cold weather
continues throughout the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Winter Storm Warning continues until 7am for Preston and
Tucker counties.
- Cold Weather Advisory continues until 10am for Eastern Tucker
County with wind chills below -10F.
- Another 1 to 2 inches in the higher terrain.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Scattered light snow showers continue to slide through the area
in uniform northwesterly flow tonight. A shallow moist layer
beneath a sinking layer of subsidence is cutting off well below
the DGZ, and with weak lift to begin with, these snow showers
are light and not producing any impacts. The higher terrain in
PA and WV will also see continuing orographically-forced snow
showers in the same atmospheric conditions overnight, and an additional
1-2 inches are possible into early Tuesday morning, so the
Winter Storm Warning continues through 7am.
The passage of low pressure will bring a strong gradient and
colder air mass infiltrating in behind the low. This has risen
probability for wind gusts >45 mph to 90+% overnight for the
highest elevations in Eastern Tucker County. Combined with
overnight lows dipping into the upper single digits, dangerous
wind chills are expected overnight, and a Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect through 10am Tuesday to cover this threat
with wind chills below -10F expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lake effect snow showers expected to continue Tuesday through
Tues night
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Heading into the day on Tuesday, the northwest trajectory in the
winds will keep the the potential for lake effect snow showers.
The colder air mass continuing to advect across the lake, will
keep these going for a bit as a massive surface high sets up
just north of Superior. In fact, the probs from the NBM and
HREF give a good 40% to 50% of hitting an inch in the higher
terrain and only about 20% to 30% for the northern counties.
These snow showers will likely continue through Tues night in
areas of weak convergence within the boundary layer with
available moisture from the sfc to 800mb. Tuesday night will
figure to be colder a couple degrees colder than Tuesday
morning.
Below average temperatures will continue in this forecast
period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Confidence is high that lake enhanced snow showers will
continue Wed
- Dry but cold conditions expected Friday under ridging
- There is the potential for a large-scale weather disturbance
to impact portions of the region Saturday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------.
The grand ensemble of long range models are in agreement that
troughing over the Great Lakes will persist Wednesday and
Thursday. This overall means that lake enhanced snow showers
will continue across the region. The snow squall parameter is
considered low for bursts intense snow bands so travel impacts
are expected to remain low.
For Friday, models are in agreement that a ridge axis will build
across the Great Lakes in the morning. With winds shifting from
the west, snow showers activity will dissolve and clearing is
likely. With radiational cooling under a clear sky,
temperatures will very cold early Friday. Single digits to near
zero temperatures are likely in a large portion of the region.
Models start to vary in the timing of a trough axis ejecting out
of the west late Friday into Saturday. About 40% of the variable
with models is based on timing. This is important disturbance to
keep an eye. If the trough phasing with a cut- off low in
southern California, a new low pressure system could form and
track towards the East Coast. With high confidence in cold
temperatures throughout this period, this low could create
winter weather impacts Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers are ongoing across the area to start
the TAF period, albeit with little impact as visibilities at
most terminals have remained at VFR levels with only occasional
dips to MVFR noted in recent obs. Additionally, a tight
pressure gradient has kept infrequent gusts near 20 knots.
High pressure and drier air begins to filter into the area
Tuesday, bringing an end to lake effect snow showers, though
flurries may continue with little impact at area terminals.
Winds begin to settle by Tuesday evening as the local pressure
gradient relaxes, with lighter winds expected during the latter
half of the 24 hour TAF period. However, given persistent NW
flow and moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion, it
looks likely that MVFR CIGs remain throughout the period.
Outlook...
The Upper OH Valley region will remain in a cold NW flow
pattern, under broad upper troughing through much of the week.
Scattered snow showers and periodic restrictions are expected.
Improvement is expected Friday as high pressure builds in.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
WVZ512>514.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/MLB/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 7, 1:22 AM EST---------------
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