PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 3:34 AM CST898
FXUS63 KPAH 060934
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One final round of light snow is moving across the region this
morning. Up to another 1 to 2 inches remains possible across
Southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana. Farther south, a
flash freeze is the main concern in addition to light coatings
of snow.
- A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect this morning for hazardous road conditions. Ice on
trees and power lines will also lead to additional power
outages with wind gusts up to 30 mph.
- An arctic cold blast will cause temperatures to remain below
freezing until at least the end of the week. The most
impactful extreme cold conditions remains on Wednesday morning
with wind chill values falling to -5 to 5 degrees.
- Still monitoring the potential for another winter system on
Friday, with snow being the main concern. Depending on the
track of low pressure, a suppressed scenario to the southeast
also remains possible. There is a 30-40% probability of seeing
at least minor impacts from this system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in effect
this morning as hazardous conditions are still ongoing across the
region. An upper level low is now moving over the FA and is
providing forcing for ascent for wrap around light snow that
will push east through 15z this morning. Pockets of freezing
drizzle also remain possible until saturation occurs in the DGZ.
A tight thermal gradient combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates and increasing lift will support bursts of snow that will
cause visibility to drop below 1 mile. Across Southern Illinois
and Southwest Indiana, between 1 to 2 inches of additional snow
is expected, locally 3 inches not ruled out along I-64. With
below freezing temps in the 20s, the snow character will be
rather dry with 13:1 to 15:1 SLRs, making it easy for
accumulation to occur on all surfaces.
Farther south, while some light coatings to a couple tenths of an
inch of snow are possible, the much bigger concern is a flash freeze
on untreated paved surfaces as temps continue to fall below
freezing. There is not enough time for the water to evaporate, and
this will lead to slippery and icy conditions for the morning
commute. Any snow that does occur will be able to cover all
surfaces, making travel conditions even more treacherous.
Meanwhile, the entire FA will also experience increasing wind gusts
between 20-30 mph today. There is concern that this will only lead
to additional power outages as the morning progresses. Given
the amount of weight of ice and snow on trees and power lines,
would treat 30 mph wind gusts like a wind advisory and prepare
for similar impacts. It is worth noting that even here at WFO
PAH, despite the sfc temps rising above freezing yesterday, a
very shallow freezing layer at about 1000 ft AGL allowed for ice
to remain on some of the trees, supporting additional impacts.
By this afternoon, a broad upper level trough will settle over the
Ohio Valley, as colder air ushers in with northwest flow. This
will set the stage for temps to remain below freezing for most
of the region until at least Friday, with Wednesday morning
still looking to be the coldest ranging from the negative single
digs in the north to lower teens across the south. The latest
NBM guidance is just outside Cold Weather Advisory criteria
across Southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana, but ongoing
power outages may need to be taking into consideration if one is
eventually needed based on impacts.
Uncertainty remains for another winter system on Friday as low
pressure looks to develop down south beneath the left entrance
regions of a 150+ kt 250 mb jet streak. At 500 mb, energy over
the Northern Plains tries to phase with southern stream energy.
There is still quite a bit of model spread on the ensemble
members on how quickly this occurs, as it will have major
implications on widespread snowfall versus a suppressed storm to
the southeast that would result in little to no snow. Would
lean towards a 30-40% probability of seeing at least minor
impacts as the setup is favorable if the timing is right.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Drizzle and freezing drizzle at each of the TAF sites will
continue through much of the night; however, it will transition
over to light snow as colder air arrives. Flash freezing of
water on the runways will be possible as temperatures quickly
drop into the low 20s overnight. IFR/LIFR conditions will
gradually improve to MVFR conditions through the day Monday.
Winds will be gust from the north and northwest around 20 to 30
kts through Monday before diminishing Monday evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for ILZ075>078-
080>083.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ084>094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107-111.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ108>110-
112-114.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KYZ007-010-
013>016-018>020.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KYZ001>006-
008-009-011-012-017-021-022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 3:34 AM CST---------------
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