BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 6:25 AM EST037
FXUS61 KBOX 031125
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
625 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue today and Saturday, but will not be
quite as strong as what we had yesterday. A cold and dry
weather pattern will set in for this weekend. A system should
track to our south early next week, although there is a chance
it brushes southern coastal areas with light snowfall. Below
normal temperatures continue for next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:
* Colder and remaining breezy today
Cold advection continues today. Still monitoring a lake effect
streamer from Lake Ontario. This should provide mostly clouds
across portions of western MA and northern CT. These clouds
showed up well in the satellite data. Surface dew point
depressions this morning were still 10-20 degrees F, so
accumulating snow is not not very likely. There may be some
flurries at times early this morning.
Despite some additional sunshine today, still thinking
temperatures will peak about 5-10 degrees lower than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Key Message:
* Even colder tonight and Saturday with gusty winds continuing
Not much change to the overall pattern, so not much change to
the forecast. Persistent W to NW winds continue to push colder
air into our region. Generally below normal temperatures right
through Saturday. Without much moisture, dry weather still
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key messages:
* Below normal temperatures moving in through the weekend,
persisting through next week.
* Low chance remains for light snowfall in southern MA, RI, CT early
next week with system moving to our south.
* Dry and cold pattern prevails
Details...
An upper level low continues to sit over Quebec as a broad trough
settles across the northeast US. Persistent W to NW flow advecting
colder, drier air along with expected steeper lapse rates will
assist in mixing down the colder air aloft. This will bring
overnight lows down to the teens and keep daytime highs in the 20s
and 30s. Gusty winds are expected to remain Saturday night into
Sunday for this same reason. Some ocean effect showers could sneak
into the area for Sunday as well.
Ensemble guidance remains consistent in tracking a low in the
central US through the east coast -- but to our south -- Monday.
There are still some chances of light snow along the south coast
into RI and southern MA; for > 0.5", the highest probs are in
southern RI in the GEFS at 40%. Other ensembles indicate lower
probs, and for > 1" of snow, probs sit around 20% along the coast
and decrease moving north. If there is any snow in southern New
England to start the week, it will most likely be light in
accumulation.
The primary pattern reinforces itself following that brief chance at
some light snow as the week goes on. Continued upper level troughing
will keep temperatures colder than normal and precipitation at
bay (aside from some stray chances of ocean effect snow showers
towards the Cape and Islands Tuesday) as we sit under this cold
and dry airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence.
VFR at all terminals; occasional MVFR possible towards the
Berkshires. Gusty winds expected to return for today, but not to
the same magnitude as Thursday's gusts. Gusts should die down
across southern New England after sunset, and occasional 20-30
kt gusts look possible once more Saturday. Winds remain
primarily from the W through the period, with some places
(Cape/Islands in particular) possibly seeing more WNW winds
tomorrow.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Winds will continue to slowly diminish today. Expect to have
Small Craft Advisories (SCA) issued as we pull down the Gale
Warnings, and those SCAs will likely continue well into this
weekend as model guidance shows gusty winds continuing for the
next several days. Given all the wind, wave heights will remain
elevated for quite awhile as well.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of snow.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ231>234-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 6:25 AM EST----------------
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