CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 9:27 AM EST069
FXUS61 KCLE 061427
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
927 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to glide east across the Ohio Valley
today. A trough will linger across the Great Lakes region
through mid-week before high pressure builds overhead Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:30 AM Update...
Minor changes to the forecast this morning as the synoptic snow
showers move off to the east and taper off. There will be a few
lake effect snow showers throughout the day as with the
northeast flow and as the flow shifts to the north. Lowered
temperatures as well a few degrees underneath the snow showers
but they will rebound as the snow moves out of the area.
Previous discussion...
Upper level trough and accompanying surface low glides east
across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic through the day
today. Widespread light snow will continue to overspread
northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with an additional 1-2
inches expected for much of the area through this morning.
Boundary layer flow aligns northeasterly as the upper trough
exits east with lingering synoptic moisture in place. This will
support lake effect snow showers across Northwest Ohio this
morning before winds back northerly to northwesterly by this
afternoon. Multiple lake effect snow bands look to develop later
today and continue through Tuesday morning under persistent NW
flow. Low to mid level ridging and dry air will approach from
the west Tuesday afternoon which will diminish any lingering
showers while simultaneously pushing them eastward. Additional
snowfall amounts in the snowbelt this afternoon through Tuesday
will range between 1-2 inches.
High temperatures today rise into the upper 20s with overnight lows
tonight in the teens to lower 20s. Slightly cooler on Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 20s. Single digit wind chill values are
possible early Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough remains dominant over the Great Lakes for the
short term forecast period. One last lobe of a west to east oriented
trough axis embedded within the cyclonic flow drops through the CWA
along with a couple of surface troughs that will reinforce the
periodic lake effect snow for the region. For now, none of the lake
effect looks particularly heavy or persistent as the low level
moisture will be patchy, but modest accumulations will still be
possible through the period. Airmass remains cold in this regime
with the dominant troughing aloft with overnight teens Tuesday night
and even single digits possible Wednesday night away from the lake
in the southern zones of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry to begin the long term with a brief period of upper level
ridging and high pressure settling into the southern Great Lakes.
Slight temperature modification for the end of the week and into the
weekend, but remaining below freezing. Long range models continue to
hint at an interaction/phasing of a northern stream/southern stream
upper level trough as they move into the eastern third of the CONUS.
Should see some snow if this pattern holds, but details will have to
come out in upcoming forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Conditions have deteriorated to MVFR/IFR, with pockets of LIFR,
in widespread snow showers this morning. Expect for mainly MVFR
conditions to persist through the TAF window, especially for
sites downwind of Lake Erie.
Widespread snow showers will gradually transition into lake
effect snow this morning as low pressure exits to the east this
morning. Generally expecting for lake effect snow to impact CLE
and terminals south and east through the TAF window under
persistent NW flow.
Easterly to northeasterly winds between 5-10 knots will increase
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots while gradually turning
northerly through the TAF window. Winds will diminish to 12
knots or less by late tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periodic snow and low ceilings
through Tuesday. Non-VFR will be possible thereafter through
Thursday with lake effect clouds and snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds northeasterly 15-25kts this morning will become northwesterly
at 15-25kts tonight, remaining northwesterly through the end of the
week. Wave heights generally 3-5ft in the western basin brings a
Small Craft Advisory through late evening. East of the islands to
Avon Point has wave heights 4-7ft through Tuesday afternoon. Avon
Point to Ripley will have an unusually long Small Craft Advisory for
wave heights 4-6ft that will go all the way into Thursday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Thursday night for
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Kennedy
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 9:27 AM EST---------------
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