IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 1:42 PM EST071
FXUS63 KIWX 031842
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
142 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers and flurries
will persist into tonight and Saturday. Light additional snow
accumulations and minor travel disruptions will be possible,
mainly along the Michigan state line.
- A period of snow expected Sunday night into Monday morning,
mainly along and south of US 24 where accumulations and travel
impacts remain possible.
- Remaining cold with periodic chances for lake effect snow next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
Lake effect snow showers/flurries will persist in chilly northwest
flow into tonight and Saturday, though coverage/intensity will
gradually wane later tonight into Saturday as subsidence/drying
slowly takes its toll on inversion heights. Minor accums and travel
impacts will remain possible in favored nw flow snow belts, mainly
late this afternoon and evening as a subtle mid level impulse drops
through. Seasonably cold early January wx the story otherwise into
this weekend.
Attention then turns to an east-pacific mid-upper level shortwave
making inroads into the Western US tonight into Saturday, eventually
emerging into the Southern Plains and maturing into a winter storm
on Sunday. This storm system will then dampen eastward through the
OH Valley Sunday night into Monday as it encounters leftover upper
level confluent northwest flow over the Great Lakes and Northeast
US. The result in the last 2 model cycles has been for a southward
shift to a drying precip shield with more of a glancing blow to
southern portions of the forecast area at best. With that said,
there still is some room for the fgen/deformation snow band to
shift back north toward the US 24 corridor given some dwindling
12z model ensemble support where the low is slower to weaken and
blocking is less impressive. With that in mind, will not make
any changes to the inherited Winter Storm Watch as an upgrade to
an Advisory may still be needed (although GEFS probs have
fallen to 20-40%, and ECMWF Ens to near 0 percent for > 3 inches
of snow along our border with IND). The remainder of the week
then features below normal temps and periodic opportunities for
LES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
General VFR conditions prevail this period. However diminishing lake
snow showers over far sw MI/nw IN will reinvigorate again by
evening timed with passage of next upstream disturbance seen in
vapor over sw WI. This should yield a period of IFR and perhaps
limited LIFR restriction in vigorous snow showers invof KSBN.
That said dry entrainment with inland extent curtails any
mention invof KFWA. Otherwise gusty w-nwrly winds continue
through sunset before tailing off a bit overnight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for INZ020-022>027-032>034.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 1:42 PM EST---------------
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