BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 9:25 AM EST211
FXUS61 KBOX 021425
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
925 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong, and possibly damaging, winds are expected today as
colder air works into the region. Dry conditions with below
normal temperatures expected Friday through this weekend. A
system should track to our south early next week, although there
is a chance it brushes southern portions of the area with a
light snowfall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 am update...
minor tweaks based on latest observations. So far wind gusts
have been mostly in the 35-45 mph range, and expect the
strongest gusts to occur early this afternoon when we have the
deepest boundary layer mixing that should result in a few
50-55 mph gusts, especially on the downwind (east) side of the
higher terrain (Berkshires, Worcester to Tolland County Hills).
The strong winds are also resulting in a long lake effect snow
streamer from Lake Ontario to make it into western CT. Radar
returns are quite light, and the boundary layer is rather dry,
so suspect nothing more than flurries. Hi-res models suggest
this streamer will drift north into western MA this afternoon,
again with nothing more than flurries. Made a few adjustments to
the Weather grids to add in mention of flurries.
Key Messages...
* Strong, and possibly damaging, winds today
A powerful low pressure will linger near the mouth of the Saint
Lawrence river today, maintaining a strong pressure gradient
across southern New England. Have already had a few observations
of gusts of 35-40 kt (40-45 mph) at Worcester and Boston. The
expectation today is for gusty winds to become more widespread
once sunshine breaks out and deeper mixing gets underway.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect into this evening. Latest HREF
and NBM ensembles, as well as model soundings, did not have
enough potential for wind gusts in excess of 55 mph to warrant
an upgrade to a High Wind Warning. A few locations along the
immediate coast, or across the higher terrain of central and
western MA may experience these higher gusts. Still thinking
that most gusts today will be in the 45-50 mph range.
Temperature-wise, cold advection will be offset a bit by
downslope warming on west winds for areas across the coastal
plains of RI and eastern MA.
Regional radar data already showed returns diminishing.
Expecting all precipitation to end in the next few hours, say
before 4 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Winds diminishing, but remaining breezy overnight.
The low pressure over Nova Scotia is slow to exit farther
northwest. So, while the core of the jet shifts east and the
pressure gradient weakens ever so slightly, winds will remain
elevated overnight, gusting 25 to 35 mph for most, though some
stronger gusts are possible across the highest elevations. Gusty
winds should continue into Friday.
Dry weather for most tonight and Friday. Perhaps a few snow
showers could reach into the northern Berkshires tonight.
Expecting some clouds to be present much of the night there,
with much less cloudiness elsewhere. The winds will actually
help to prevent low temperatures from really bottoming out,
although it will be colder than previous nights. Cold advection
continues into Friday, but still thinking high temperatures will
be near normal for early January.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key messages:
* Below normal temperatures moving in through the weekend,
persisting through next week.
* Low chance remains for light snowfall in southern MA, RI, CT early
next week with system moving to our south.
Details...
An upper level low over Quebec this weekend and its associated
trough will be the primary driver for drier and colder conditions,
especially as the trough sinks south. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance continue to be in strong agreement in this scenario. Flow
shifts to be more NW aloft, and forecast soundings indicate the
colder air aloft will mix down to the surface. Blustery conditions
Saturday also look possible as a result. Temperatures take more of a
dip going into Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 20s in higher
elevations and 30s elsewhere in southern New England. Lows through
this period are all likely to be in the teens. PWAT values through
the weekend remain very low and ensembles indicate a slightly drier
than normal pattern at this time.
A low passing through the mid-Atlantic region to start the coming
week may brush just south of southern New England, bringing some low
chances for some light snowfall across parts of CT into RI and
southern MA. The GEPS appears the most aggressive at the moment,
giving much of MA up to a 20% chance for a tenth of an inch or more.
Most other solutions have much lower chances, but the main areas to
keep an eye on will be parts of CT, RI, and southern MA out into the
Cape and Islands. Even then, there is not much moisture expected to
make its way to southern New England, further enforcing that this
would be just some light snowfall at most.
More of the same pattern is expected going into the rest of next
week. Persistent upper level troughing will keep temperatures colder
than normal and precipitation at bay as we sit under this cold and
dry airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.
VFR through the period. Winds have already begun to gust and
are expected to continue to do so for the rest of today.
W/NW continue with gusts reaching 40-50kt from about 02/14Z-22Z.
W winds diminish tonight, but remain gusty into Friday.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Gale Warnings continue into this evening on all waters as
strongest winds peak today, before subsiding later tonight into
Fri. It's possible we see some gusts reach Storm force (48kt)
but we don't have confidence that those gusts will occur over a
large enough area for more than a couple of hours today. Winds
and seas will begin to slowly diminish tonight into Friday.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk/Nash
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 9:25 AM EST----------------
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