LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 11:23 PM CST ...New AVIATION...568
FXUS64 KLIX 020523
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1123 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Generally benign conditions are ongoing for the rest of today as a
surface high pressure slides eastward. For tomorrow and Friday,
isolated showers are forecast, especially for the southern half of
the CWA as moisture gets advected back to the area again.
Otherwise, the only short term concern is low potential of fog Thur
night into early Fri morning. There is still some uncertainty (and
SREF probs don't really ping it really hard at the moment) but left
some mention of patchy light fog for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Next major chance of showers and storms will be late Sunday into
Monday as a cold front will sweep through the area. Current thinking
is the best severe potential will be to the north and west of our
area but it certainly will need to be monitored for our local area,
especially in the north and western parts of the CWA. Looking at
forecast soundings near BTR metro, shear will be decent (0-6km shear
greater than 30-40kt), CAPE is a little more marginal (700-900 J/kg)
but should be sufficient for thunderstorm development. Can't rule
out anything right now including tornadoes. Forecast PW values are
near 1 in and the front pushing through should keep storms
progressive so not as concerned about flash flooding at this time.
Regardless of all the parameters, there still is a lot of
uncertainty of the placement of the upper level low in the global
models, so generally used the NBM for now and will continue to
watch the trends.
After the cold front clears the area on Monday, significantly
colder temperatures are expected Monday night with temperatures
at/below freezing (along/north of I-10/I-12 corridor), to mid 30s
near the south shore and Louisiana coast. Tuesday highs won't be
much better with highs struggling to reach 50. There's also
potential for it to be even colder depending on how far south the
arctic air can get.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
VFR continue and will remain in place for the next 24 hrs. Winds
have decoupled over most terminals with the only teminals not
likely to go calm being MSY and NEW with winds coming off the
lake. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Winds have generally relaxed to below small craft advisory criteria
so allowed that to expire at noon. Winds will still remain elevated
for the rest of today before calming down to onshore flow 5-10 knots
tomorrow/Friday. Winds are forecast to be on the increase again this
weekend with headlines possible again starting Sunday going through
possibly at least midweek next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 32 60 38 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 63 37 65 45 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 62 36 63 44 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 61 43 63 49 / 0 0 0 20
GPT 61 37 61 43 / 0 0 0 20
PQL 64 35 64 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...BL
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 11:23 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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