MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 11:38 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...283
FXUS64 KMOB 021739
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1138 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast. A light easterly
wind will turn northerly overnight as a dry cold front moves
through the area. BB/03
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
Surface high pressure across the region through this evening will
transition to a ridge extending from south-central Canada to the
northeast Gulf as a cold front passes through the area Friday
morning. A large upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be
reinforced by shortwave energy ejecting from the Rocky Mountains
across the central/southern Great Plains, while an upper ridge
axis over the Pacific Coast shifts eastward across the Rockies by
late in the period. Aside from a brief period of increasing clouds
tonight, the dry weather conditions will persist due to the lack
of sufficient moisture and forcing ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal through
Friday afternoon with highs today ranging from the mid 50s to
lower 60s, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 30s across our
northern zones to the low to mid 40s closer to the coast. Lows
Friday night should drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s most
locations in the wake of the cold front, with upper 30s along our
coastal communities. Light winds will keep the rip current risk
LOW through the period. /22
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025
Near zonal to zonal flow aloft Saturday into early Sunday becomes
more southwesterly late Sunday and Sunday night in and Saturday
night as an upper level shortwave trough moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley region. The axis of the cool and dry ridge of
high pressure that moved across the forecast area in the near term
period will shift east of our area with onshore low level flow
returning. This low level flow will potentially allow for a marine
warm front to lift toward or into our coastal counties Saturday
night into early Sunday, with some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms as well(beginning Saturday night). Rain chances
should further increase from the west during the day on Sunday
(especially in the afternoon) as a cold front will be approaching
the forecast area from the west. Models are in somewhat decent
agreement in moving this cold front east across our area Sunday
night, with the highest rain chances coming Sunday night when we
expect likely to categorical PoPs to sweep east across the area.
This will bring numerous showers and storms to the region.
As was mentioned in yesterday afternoons discussion, the biggest
question continues to be the overall quality of the low level warm
sector airmass out ahead of the frontal boundary. Considering the
time that will be needed to modify the existing continental polar
airmass currently in place, models for now continue to advertise
very little recover and minimal thermodynamic instability. So, for
now we are not expecting any severe storms with this system. But
we will continue to note that if quality moisture return can occur
and the warm front is able to advance a little further inland
than currently expected out ahead of the approaching cold front,
then there could be some potential for severe storms to develop.
But, confidence in this happening remains low at this time. We
will continue to closely monitor this system as we get closer in
time and hopefully confidence increases.
Another shot of cool/cold and dry air will quickly build across
our area in the wake of the Sunday night frontal passage. No rain
is expected for the remainder of the extended term (late Monday
through Wednesday), but colder temperatures are likely.
Temperatures will moderate Saturday and Sunday as the system
approaches, with highs Saturday generally in the mid to upper 50s
and in the mid to upper 60s (some lower 70s at the coast) on
Sunday. Low temperatures Saturday night look to be in the upper
30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s to around 50 at the coast.
Similar but slightly cooler lows expected Sunday night. Much
cooler temperatures are then expected Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs probably won't make it out of the 40s any of those
three days. Overnight lows will be quite cold, falling into the
mid to upper 20s for most locations Monday night except for low to
mid 30s along the immediate coast. Tuesday night will probably be
even colder, with lows in the low to mid 20s for most locations,
but upper 20s to lower 30s at the coast. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 42 64 37 58 47 69 39 51 / 0 0 0 0 30 50 90 20
Pensacola 44 63 39 58 48 69 46 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 80 20
Destin 47 64 41 59 49 70 50 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 80 30
Evergreen 35 61 31 56 38 68 38 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 50 90 20
Waynesboro 36 60 31 54 41 66 33 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 80 10
Camden 33 56 29 52 37 64 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 90 20
Crestview 35 64 32 59 38 69 44 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 80 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 11:38 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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