MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 4:20 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...399
FXUS64 KMOB 011020
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
420 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 420 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
Zonal flow aloft continues through Thursday as an upper-level
longwave trough begins to evolve over the eastern US. An embedded
shortwave looks to quickly pass over the region Thursday night,
allowing for a northwesterly flow pattern to return to the local
region at the tail end of the near term period. At the surface,
high pressure will remain in control through the period. With the
high currently over the southern Plains, winds will remain out of
the north today. Winds become light and variable on Thursday as
the high moves overhead. For the most part, dry conditions will
prevail through the period due to a lack of deep moisture,
although a brief, isolated shower cannot be ruled out Thursday
night near the coast as the trough passes overhead. Otherwise,
highs for both today and tomorrow will top out in the upper 50s to
low 60s areawide. Lows tonight will range from the low 30s inland
to the low 40s along the coast. Lows Thursday night will be a
couple degrees warmer due to increased cloud cover from the
passing shortwave passing overhead. A Low Risk of rip currents
will be in place through the period. /96
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
A dry forecast is expected Friday through late Saturday night or
early Sunday as large Canadian high pressure, positioned from the
north-central CONUS noses southeast into our area. Rain chances
return by late Sunday afternoon then continues through Monday
evening as another storm system moves east across the area.
Instability appears to be limited with this feature, so mostly
showers again, but some slightly stronger dynamics may result in
some rumbles of thunder mixed in as well. For now it appears that
precipitation chances will end just before the onset of temperature
profiles that could become supported of wintry precipitation. Models
then show drier air quickly moving into the region on Tuesday, and
much cooler/colder temperatures as well. An even colder airmass will
likely overspread the region in the days beyond the extended period,
and we will continue to monitor this time period for extreme cold
and potentially some wintry precipitation as models have been
hinting at that potential.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s Friday,
then slightly cooler in the 50s areawide on Saturday before
rebounding to the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday and Monday. Noticably
cooler on Tuesday with highs in the mid and upper 40s inland and low
to mid 50s coastal. Lows Friday night will range from the upper 20s
well inland to the upper 30s and lower 40s at the coast. Slightly
warmer on Saturday night and then even more so on Sunday night when
lows should be in the low 40s to around 50s inland and low to mid
50s at the coast. Gets colder again by Tuesday night with lows in
the mid and upper 20 inland and mid to upper 30s coastal. We will be
monitoring for the potential of even colder low temperatures in the
days beyond the extended term, but plenty of time to watch and make
adjustments for that. There is a signal for some very cold
temperatures during that time period, however. DS/12
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025
A moderate offshore flow will persist through tonight. Exercise
caution headlines will continue through the morning hours for our
Gulf waters, the southern portion of Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound. Winds turn more easterly on Thursday and become
light and variable by Thursday night. Another front will pass
across the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a moderate
offshore flow to return. Winds gradually shift to easterly and
then southeasterly over the weekend as another cold front
approaches the area. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 36 61 41 61 34 55 41 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 61 40 60 44 61 37 54 43 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10
Destin 62 43 61 45 63 38 57 44 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 60 33 61 34 58 29 53 33 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10
Waynesboro 58 32 59 35 58 29 52 36 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
Camden 57 31 57 33 54 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 10
Crestview 62 33 61 34 61 31 56 33 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 4:20 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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