IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 7:24 PM EST893
FXUS63 KIWX 020024
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
724 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light lake effect snow showers overnight, only very light
accumulations and few if any weather or traffic related
impacts.
- Weak, fast moving system brings light snow Thursday night,
mainly south of US-30
- Periods of lake effect snow showers into the weekend along
with colder temperatures.
- Uncertainty remains regarding potential winter weather
impacts Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
Cold front and initial disturbance responsible for pockets of
very light accumulations as well as lake enhanced snow showers
was working east. Limited reports have been received, but based
off webcams accumulations have generally a dusting to maybe a
half inch. One more area of vorticity moves through into this
evening to allow for a small window of renewed snow showers
north of US 30 and greatest amounts US-6 north. Cooler
temperatures and time of day may allow for a bit more
accumulation that today, but overall should still average a half
inch or less. Activity quickly ends overnight.
A lull in the precip occurs with brief, weak ridging ahead of a
fast moving wave set to bring another round of synoptic
snowfall maybe as early as late Thursday afternoon, but best
chances 00Z-09Z Fri. Confidence is highest in S/SW areas (along
and south of US-30) for accumulating snow on the order of 1 to
possibly 2 inches with the greatest chance for a bit of
overachieving along/south of US-24. As the wave comes east it
will be losing some of its definition but should still maintain
enough energy. Models do vary on northward extent of measurable
snowfall but many places should see at least a few snow flakes
even towards the toll road. Lake effect will begin to kick in as
the low is departing, but the most favorable conditions don't
arrive till after 16Z Fri when delta T's peak near 20 C, equilibrium
levels around 10 kft and 0-2 km ThetaE Lapse rates become
slightly negative even well inland. Highest pops have been
confined closer to the lake through 6Z Sat but may need to
expand further SE in subsequent forecasts. Pockets of 1 to
maybe 3 inches of snow are possibly, but given the multi
cellular nature this is not expected to be widespread.
Focus then shifts to the much discussed strong wave still over
the Pacific, which approaches the western US coast by 18Z Fri
(and finally get sampled by the upper air network). As it comes
on shore the energy fractures somewhat, with the strongest
element diving SE to the TX/OK Oklahoma panhandle by 6Z Sun,
then NE into the Ohio Valley 24 hours later. While models do
have some concensus on overall track of the sfc low over
Kentucky by 6Z Mon the northward extent of the energy and
moisture varies. Ensembles show a rather stout wall (gradient)
of precip barely edging into our southern counties. Given still
several days out and models expected to waffle until the system
is better sampled, it is important not to key in on any
particular solution at this point. In addition, while we trend
colder (well below normal), highs may "bottom out" in the teens
by the middle of next week which will still feel rather cold
compared to the overall warm pattern in the past weeks.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
The cloud layer upstream was just deep enough to support
flurries with the top of the cloud in the DGZ according to the
latest HRRR BUFKIT soundings. Flurries should spread across
northern Indiana overnight and especially the SBN terminals.
Cloud bases should be MVFR and above 020. At this time it
appears SBN will be just far enough south to be in the path of
snow showers.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 7:24 PM EST---------------
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