IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 12:09 AM EST709
FXUS63 KIWX 300509
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1209 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and gusty winds to linger into this evening.
- Another chance of rain, possibly mixing with snow at the end
arrives Tuesday.
- Colder air begins to filter into the area starting Wednesday
with chances for lake effect snow showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024
Main focus remains on deepening low with well pronounced deformation
band well west of the forecast area from southern Lk MI into
southern IN. The sfc low was located just west of Muncie at 18Z,
working steadily NE. Dry slot has advanced across much of the
eastern parts of the forecast area with either dry conditions or
some lingering drizzle/mist and fog. Pocket of steeper lapse rates
along/ahead of the cold front was working across central IN into SW
Ohio. Expecting more of a showery setup to take shape over the next
couple of hours with vis satellite showing the more convective
nature of the precip. Can't rule out a stronger wind gust with some
of the showers, but better limited severe threat may occur with fine
line of convection from near KILN southwest into Kentucky where
temperatures have warmed closer to 60 allowing for better
instability (SVR recently issued on northern portion of the line).
Will monitor trends in the coming hours, but think threat rather low.
As for the wind advisory, overall confidence in seeing 45 mph gusts
isn't the highest, but definitely some 40 mph or so gusts
showing up in some locations along and ahead of the deformation
zone and along the front. Will keep the advisory intact,
although it is possible the expiration could be sooner than
currently in place.
A brief dry period is in store Mon into Mon eve prior to the arrival
of the next sharpening wave which tracks quickly across the central
Plains into the northern Ohio Valley for Tuesday. Variations in the
track of the sfc low and degree of deepening of the upper level wave
remain. This results in challenges not only in coverage/location of
the area of rain along/north of the sfc low track but also
implications on thermal profiles and somewhat quicker arrival of
colder air and mixing of snow in N/NW areas as 850 temps drop below
zero and sfc wet bulb temps reach freezing starting as early at 18Z.
For now have expanded higher pops further north with no sig changes
in terms of mixing of snow on back side of the low.
Region will be entrenched in a NW flow for the remainder of the
forecast period. Brief period of lake effect may commence Tue night
into Wed as inversion heights increase and delta t's reach the mid
teens, but looking rather lack luster at this point. Surge of colder
air arrive late Thursday into Thursday night with some models
indicating a brief shot at some light snow with the front and maybe
a better chance at some lake effect snow showers.
Towards the end of the period, a major shift in the pattern still
looks to be in order with med range models struggling on handling of
a deepening low that could bring widespread snow to the area and
MUCH colder air. Plenty of time to look at things in coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
Rain continues to taper off at KSBN and KFWA as of midnight.
Expect light showers to last for another hour or so, before it
becomes dry for the rest of the TAF forecast period. Winds are
still quite breezy out of the west with gusts 25 to 35 kts
possible over the next few hours. IFR ceilings will gradually
become MVFR throughout the morning hours, although considerable
amounts of low clouds will linger throughout the day. Winds
shift to become southwest and diminish to 5 to 10 kts by the
evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 30, 12:09 AM EST---------------
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