ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 1:24 AM EST243
FXUS61 KILN 310624
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach the area tonight and move through on
Tuesday. Colder air will come in behind the low, marking the
beginning of a prolonged period of below normal temperatures. So
the next system to affect the area late in the week will bring
some light snow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
While there has been a drop off in temperatures this evening, as
cloud cover increases and warm air moves into the region,
temperatures will rise overnight. Some temperatures have already
started to rise. Rain will overspread the region as the night
progresses. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder, but
confidence was not high enough to include in the forecast. Winds
will start to pick up some later in the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will move from central Indiana into northeast Ohio
on Tuesday. Widespread showers moving across the forecast area
at the start of the day will pass off to the east during the
morning. But there will be plenty of additional showers
throughout the afternoon into the early evening as the system
moves through.
On the backside of the low, scattered showers will persist but
gradually decrease in coverage going into the overnight. As
temperatures drop, snow will mix in with the rain and some
locations may end up as just snow before ending. At this point
not expecting any accumulation. In the cold advection behind the
low, winds will gust up to 30 mph.
Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 40s in west central
Ohio to the mid 50s in south central Ohio. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will remain in place across the eastern
two thirds of the CONUS through Friday. This will lead to slightly
below normal temperatures with daytime highs in the 30s and
overnight lows in the 20s. Some light snow may linger into the day
on Wednesday as a weak mid level short wave moves off to the east.
Another weak embedded mid level short wave will move through the
Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday, bringing another chance of
light snow with the potential for some minor accumulations.
Mid level ridging will traverse quickly east across the Ohio Valley
on Saturday ahead of a stronger mid level short wave moving out of
the Plains. An associated developing low pressure system will lift
northeast across the Ohio Valley and toward the Great Lakes region
Sunday, but there remains significant model differences in the
strength and timing of this low. For now will just allow for a
developing chance for snow through the day on Sunday. However, the
eventual ptype and amounts from this system will be dependent on the
exact track of the low. Daytime highs through the weekend will be in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure over the Mid MS Valley will track east thru the
area today. As the system approaches scattered rain showers will
increase in coverage toward sunrise with VFR ceilings dropping
to MVFR. Vsbys will be reduced at times in rain showers.
As colder air wraps in on the back side of the system tonight,
rain will transition to some snow showers and ceilings will drop
to IFR.
East winds around 10 kts will become southerly and increase to
around 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts during the daylight
hours. Late in the day into this evening winds to shift become
northwest and increase to 18-20kts with gusts approaching 30
kts.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will
continue Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into
Wednesday. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys are also possible with
snow Thursday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 1:24 AM EST---------------
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