IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 26, 12:43 PM EST956
FXUS63 KIWX 261743
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1243 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of light rain, drizzle and fog ending early today.
- Becoming mild this afternoon with highs in the 40s to around 50.
- Continued mild through early next week with rain likely
Friday, Sunday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Mild and moist air accompanied by areas of light rain, fog and
drizzle will continue to spread north over the forecast area
the rest of the night. The best chance for areas of dense fog
forming is away from areas of rain which is expected to be near
and north of the Michigan border and over northwest Indiana. At
this time, it looks like warm air advection should be just
strong enough to avert dense fog from forming (with visibilities
staying above 1/2SM).
Otherwise, very mild weather will prevail through the weekend into
early next week with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s & low
temperatures staying above freezing. Vast quantities of energy
of mostly Pacific origin will race east through early next week
and bring multiple rounds of precipitation. Timing (given the
latest GFS and ECMWF) looks to be close to a system arriving
every 48 hours; each bringing around a quarter inch of rain
(i.e. Friday, Sunday and Tuesday). Thermal profiles appear too
warm to support anything other than rain or drizzle until cooler
air spreads back over the are behind the Tuesday system. At
this time, travel issues and weather related impacts appear
unlikely through the end of the year Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
A challenging aviation forecast this period with main forecast
uncertainty on timing improving conditions at KSBN this
afternoon/evening. An upper level short wave responsible for
widespread light rain/drizzle over past 24 hours is departing to
the east. Broad, weak isentropic upglide will continue for the
remainder of the afternoon, but this southerly flow will be
advecting some slightly drier air into northern Indiana into
this evening. Have already seen a transition to VFR conditions
at KFWA, with an expectation KSBN should transition to VFR late
this afternoon or early evening. The main item of uncertainty
deals with potential any redevelopment of MVFR cigs tonight with
greatest potential across far northern Indiana. At this time,
current forecast thinking is that this is a low probability,
although KSBN does appear to have some chance for some vsby
restrictions with some fog redevelopment possible. The next
system will bring deteriorating aviation conditions again for
Friday with widespread light rain, but mainly toward the end and
just outside of this forecast valid period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 26, 12:43 PM EST---------------
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