ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 3:30 AM EST816
FXUS61 KILN 250830
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak mid level disturbances within a southwest flow aloft will
bring the threat for rain today and tonight. A brief respite in
precipitation chances on Thursday will be followed by unsettled
weather heading into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will
continue to warm to above normal readings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
It will be a cloudy and a somewhat dreary Christmas Day.
Weak embedded mid level disturbances within a southwest flow
aloft will combine with weak WAA/moisture transport to produce
the threat for light rain today. The greatest chances for rain
will occur along and west of the I-75 corridor where weak lift
will be maximized. Highs will be near to a little above normal
depending on location. Highs will range from near 40 far north
to the mid/upper 40s along and south of the Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The rain threat will continue into the evening hours. However,
there should be a decreasing trend in areal coverage, especially
after midnight. It will remain cloudy. Lows will fall into the
upper 30s to the lower 40s.
On Thursday, mid level southwest flow will begin to increase
between a mid level ridge and the next weather system approaching
from the southwest. We should see a respite in the precipitation
chances. Clouds will linger, but there is some indication that
skies may become partly cloudy in our east zones during the
afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s north to the
lower 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
East flow at the surface and upper level ridging on Thursday
night will provide a dry forecast only to see an upper low track
from MO to the southern MI state line, weakening as it moves.
In response to the s/w axis in this low, showers will spread
over the CWA from wsw- ene through the day Friday. Late Friday
and overnight will see a lull in the rain. Towards daybreak and
into Saturday, a lljet of 50+kt will begin to usher in
significant moisture on deep sw flow. This will result in rain
overspreading the CWA, potentially a soaking rain within a
narrow sw-ne maxima se of the I-71 corridor. This is per the GFS
and Canadian models and not so much the European and indicates
the peak the rain maxima looks to be situated se of the I-71
corridor, peaking in the evening. This rain will be shunted east
and out of the CWA shortly thereafter as a deep l/w trough
digging to the west changes the deep sw flow to a more southerly
direction and cutting off the established flow of moist air.
Any precip should have ended by daybreak Sunday. Will trend
forecast to this scenario but likely just increase what pops NBM
will be giving us within this area of concern in our se.
Sw surface flow re-establishes itself Monday as upper flow
becomes zonal for a brief period. After midnight Monday, rain
will spread into the CWA as a strong upper low in a broad upper
trough supports a significant surface low that will track over
the area on Tuesday, bringing another, more widespread rainfall
event. Enough upward motion exists with this system that I would
expect thunder but being this far out in the forecast will just
keep ptype plain rain. There are differences in
placement/timing of these features, but not so far apart to
dissuade the messaging of a strong system at this time.
Temperatures will peak on Saturday with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s and lows near 50. They will then fall through the
end of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through sunrise, it will remain cloudy across the region with
mainly MVFR conditions. Some IFR/LIFR ceilings will be very
close to the northern terminals (KDAY/KCMH/KLCK) Also, some
light rain will try to encroach the Tri-State region from the
southwest toward morning. Winds will be light out of the
east/southeast.
For today, weak lift associated with WAA/moisture transport,
will bring some light rain to the region, mainly for the western
half of the forecast area and mostly along and north of the
Ohio River. Conditions again will be mostly MVFR. However, some
IFR ceilings will occur near and west/northwest of KDAY. Winds
will be east/southeast around 5 knots.
For Wednesday night, light rain will diminish in areal coverage
as weak lift dwindles. Mainly MVFR conditions will persist near
and west/northwest of KDAY. Some pockets of IFR ceilings will
linger as well in this area. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
return. Winds will be east/southeast around 5 knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions to linger near and west/northwest of
KDAY into Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions likely Friday
into Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 3:30 AM EST---------------
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