CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 7:15 PM EST974
FXUS61 KCLE 250015
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge is expected to impact our region through Friday as the
parent high pressure center wobbles east-northeastward from the
western Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence River Valley and
vicinity. A low pressure system is still forecast to move
northeastward across the Upper Midwest and toward James Bay this
weekend. This should allow the attendant warm front to sweep
northward through our region this Saturday and the trailing cold
front to sweep eastward through our area this Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
700 PM EST Update...
Overall, the forecast remains on track and no changes were
needed with this update. Fog/mist and low stratus will likely
continue through tonight and possibly well into Wednesday.
Previous Discussion...
Aloft, a shortwave ridge builds slowly from the Upper Midwest
and vicinity through Wednesday night. In addition, two subtle
shortwave troughs are expected to impact our region Wednesday
night. One of these disturbances is expected to move SE'ward
over central and eastern Lake Erie, NE OH, and NW PA, while the
other is expected to approach northern OH from IL and vicinity.
At the surface, a ridge will continue to affect the eastern
Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley as the parent high pressure
center wobbles ENE'ward from the western Great Lakes toward
southern QC and vicinity. Widespread low clouds are expected to
persist through Wednesday night as abundant low-level moisture
remains trapped below a subsidence inversion accompanying the
ridge. Patchy fog, apparently mixing fog, has lingered across
interior portions of our CWA in the wake of last night's and
this morning's precip. This fog may continue to linger. Weak
winds and residual moisture at/near the surface, and limited
nocturnal cooling may allow the low clouds to expand downward
and result in additional patchy fog formation this evening
through daybreak Christmas Day morning. This potential increase
in low-level cloud layer depth may also result in drizzle or
freezing drizzle occurrence via collision coalescence, but
forecast confidence in precip occurrence is particularly low.
Shortly after sunrise, limited diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer will commence, which should allow any fog to
dissipate by late morning on Christmas Day. Morning lows are
expected to reach the 20's to lower 30's in NW PA and the upper
20's to mid 30's in northern OH around daybreak on Christmas Day
and Thursday, respectively. Late afternoon highs are expected
to reach the 30's in NW PA and the mid 30's to lower 40's in
northern OH on Christmas Day.
Current odds favor fair weather through the daylight hours of
Christmas Day courtesy of a stabilizing subsidence inversion
accompanying the aforementioned ridge, which is expected to
limit the depth of low-level clouds and their ability to produce
precip. Periodic drizzle and snow flurries are possible in our
CWA Christmas evening through daybreak Thursday, especially west
of I-79, courtesy of moist isentropic ascent ahead of the axes
of the aforementioned shortwave troughs, which should promote
the development of a deeper low/mid-level cloud layer. However,
forecast soundings from NBM members disagree regarding the depth
of the cloud layer and how cold cloud tops will be (e.g. cloud
tops may or may not be cold enough to support ice nucleation and
snow production via the Bergeron ice crystal process). Pockets
of freezing drizzle are possible since drizzle may coincide with
surface temperatures and wet-bulb temperatures of 32F or
colder. Any ice and snow accumulations are expected to be a
trace, respectively.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue over Eastern Canada/New England through
the end of the week as the next upper level trough moves in from the
west. There will be chance PoPS across the northwestern counties as
the moisture pushes off with the axis of the upper level ridge
through the midday Thursday. The next surface low pressure system
begins to take shape across the central plains and pushes to the
northeast. This will bring the next chance for precipitation Friday
evening, though the associated upper level shortwave will weaken as
it approaches the region so PoP chances will drop off from west to
east through Friday night. At the surface, winds will shift out of
the south throughout the day on Friday and will see temperatures
continue to rise with highs into the mid to upper 40s and
approaching 50s out west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PoPs will increase again through the day Saturday as previously
mentioned low pressure system moves in from the southwest with the
associated upper level trough deepening over the central plains. A
warm front will move across the region during the day on Saturday
and winds will veer to more south-southwesterly. The rain will be in
the region from Saturday through Sunday night as a cold front will
move through on Sunday. Flow behind the surface low will be
generally out of the west as a weak ridge builds over central CONUS
early next week and will push any residual precipitation out to the
east though there may be a few lingering lake effect showers across
the eastern shoreline. Precipitation will return during the day
Tuesday as another upper level trough forms out west. Temperatures
during the period will be fairly mild, even with the rain showers.
850mb temperatures will be ranging from 6-10 C for the weekend with
highs Saturday and Sunday in the 50s across the region before
dropping into the mid 40s to start the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Main concern for the TAF period will be low stratus and fog/mist
due to ample low level moisture and light surface winds.
Currently have a mixed bag of flight conditions ranging from VFR
to LIFR and conditions will likely fluctuate through tonight.
Ceilings should very slowly improve throughout the TAF period,
although MVFR will likely persist at most terminals through the
entire period. Fog may attempt to improve at some point after
daybreak Wednesday morning as drier air works into the region,
although visibility may worsen as moisture increases from the
southwest in response to the arrival of a shortwave Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
Light and variable winds continue through tonight with winds
taking on a more east/southeast direction by Wednesday
afternoon.
Outlook...Periodic light rain with non-VFR possible through
Wednesday night. Non-VFR with periodic rain possible Friday
through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to decrease across the lake to 5-10 knots, and
generally out of the east to southeast through this evening. On
Thursday, winds will become more predominantly out of the east, but
will remain at 5-10 knots. Waves will reflect the lighter winds and
will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday. On Saturday, winds will shift
to be southerly at 10-15 knots as a warm front lifts across the
lake. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday night
veering the winds to be out of the southwest at 10-15 knots. Waves
will build slightly across the central and eastern basins of the
open lake zones to 2 to 4 feet on briefly on Sunday before subsiding
to 1 to 3 feet.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Kennedy
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 24, 7:15 PM EST---------------
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