IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:32 AM EST799
FXUS63 KIWX 201032
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
532 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick 1-2" of snow this morning over parts of northern
Indiana and far southern Lower Michigan, < 1" over northwest
Ohio. Travel impacts mainly near and north of the Mich
border..
- Cold nights tonight through Sunday night with lows around 10
to 20.
- Becoming very mild this upcoming week with highs around 40 to
50 Tuesday thru Thursday, even milder Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
A mid level trof and associated surface low over far northwest
Indiana should drift southeast/south-southeast toward central
Indiana early today. Surface reports and radar images support
up to 1"/hour in the favorable upper level support region/small
deformation zone where snow showers were occurring.
Drizzle/freezing drizzle ended earlier last night and was no
longer supported with the presence of a very deep cloud
saturation layer and a high DGZ. May have to make some snowfall
adjustments on the far south part of the forecast area from
Monticello to Marion where some or most precipitation may fall
as a mix or just rain causing lower snowfall amounts. Overnight
travel impacts were limited mainly to near and north of the
Michigan border where surface temperatures were below freezing
and roads were snow covered and slippery, especially across
Berrien County. Farther south, surface temperatures were above
freezing where roads were mostly just wet. The snow & snow
mixed with rain should end by early afternoon, although a brief
and relatively weak lake effect snow event will follow.
Inversion heights will be too low to support heavy lake effect
snow. Low level winds from 020 degrees favor any lake effect
snow showers to be near or west of Laporte County.
Otherwise, temperatures next week will become very mild for
this time of year with a very dominant positive high latitude
height anomaly developing over all of the North American
interior. Highs by next Friday are likely to be near or above
50 degrees. At this time, little if any impactive travel is
expected next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
Predominant IFR conditions this morning as band of mid lvl
deformation enhanced snow shifts across the terminals in
association with upper trough now pinwheeling into OH. Lagging
mid lvl trough axis will rapidly collapse swd this aftn and
bring an abrupt end to the snow yet also herald in gusts n-nw
winds for a time within cold advection wing. Further drying and
subsidence by evening will clear extensive lingering stratocu
with improvement into VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:32 AM EST---------------
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